EUR/USD falls below 1.1300

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish today
  • Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 57% to sell
  • US GDP release at 13:30 GMT

The EUR/USD has passed downwards, as expected. During the decline the rate had traded almost sideways near the weekly S1 at 1.1290 and the 1.1300 mark before eventually reaching the low level of 1.1270. In general, it is expected that the decline will continue and gradually reach the 1.1240 level.

Latest Fundamental Event

The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Durable Goods Orders data release last Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 6 pips or 0.06% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.1400.00 area against the US Dollar.

The Census Bureau released US Core Durable Goods Orders data that came out lower than expected of 0.1 compared with forecasted 0.4%. Moreover, the US Durable Goods Orders data came out together with the US Core Durable Goods Orders with the data lower-than-expected of negative 4.4% compared with the forecasted negative 2.2%.

"New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion", the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.


Wednesday's US GDP incoming

This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.

First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.

On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.

On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.

Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.

All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
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EUR/USD daily review

During Tuesday's trading session, the currency exchange pair passed through the support of the medium horizontal pattern line at 1.1301 to end the trading session at the 1.1285 mark. During Wednesday morning hours, the rate was trading between the weekly S1 and the medium horizontal pattern line at the 1.2978 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will be resisted by the medium horizontal pattern line at 1.1301 mark to push the rate to trade below the weekly S1 near the 1.1240 level.

On the other side, today's US Prelim GDP data release may push the rate to break the medium horizontal pattern line to trade at 1.1340.

Hourly Chart



On the daily chart it can be clearly observed that the support of a medium term pattern has been passed. The rate has no additional support on the daily chart. It is expected to decline down to 1.1240.

Daily chart

Traders short the EUR/USD

Traders remain slightly bearish in regards to the EUR/USD. Namely, 52% of traders were short since Tuesday.

In the 100-pip range trader pending orders are mostly set to sell. Namely, 59% of trader set up orders were set to sell on Wednesday morning.

Traders are shorting the decline downwards. Although, the bearish sentiment was not dominating previously. On Wednesday, most had prepared to go short, if the decline continues.

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