- The Swiss traders are 68% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 58% to buy
- Quiet week for fundamental data traders
The recovery of the USD/JPY currency exchange rate has been stopped by the first resistance of the weekly pivot points at the 113.36 level. Meanwhile, note that the rate has traded almost sideways throughout the day.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Census Bureau released US Core Durable Goods Orders data that came out lower than expected of 0.1 compared with forecasted 0.4%. Moreover, the US Durable Goods Orders data came out together with the US Core Durable Goods Orders with the data lower-than-expected of negative 4.4% compared with the forecasted negative 2.2%.
"New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion", the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
Only data for USD/JPY is the US GDP on Wednesday
This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.
On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.
On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.
Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.
All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short term daily review
The US Dollar has paused its surge against the Japanese Yen. The pause from a technical perspective was caused by the resistance of the weekly R1, which is located at the 113.36 level.If the level gets passed, the rate is set to gradually surge up to the next technical level, which is the weekly R2 at 113.74.
On the other hand, after a sudden surge upwards, like the one which occurred on Friday, the currency pair has to consolidate its gains or even experience a pullback. If this becomes reality, the rate will trade sideways or even retrace back down to the 113.00 level.
Hourly Chart
The previously speculated surge from the daily chart's perspective is taking place. The USD/JPY is surging. However, as the rate gets pushed higher day by day by the 55-day simple moving average, the rate will face the resistance of various pivot point levels.
Daily chart
By the middle of Monday's trading session 68% of traders were short on the USD/JPY. The pair is clearly in the oversold zone for the retail sector.
In the meantime, trader set up orders in the 100 base point range indicated at an upcoming surge, as 59% of orders were set to buy.
Traders are prepared to buy and close their short positions, if the rate signals them. Most likely, the passing of the 113.36 level is one of the possible buy signals.