- The Swiss market is 53% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to BUY
- No more UK releases during the week
The GBP/USD currency exchange rate had reached the targeted resistance of 1.3290 earlier than initially forecast. Namely, it was expected that the level will be reached during the middle of next week. Although, these are not bad news for Dukascopy traders.
The British pound appreciated against the US Dollar, following the United Kingdom CPI data release on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 39 pips or 0.30% during a minute, right after the release. The rate continued trading at the 1.3181 level.
The Office for National Statistics released United Kingdom CPI data that came out better-than-expected of 2.7%, compared to forecasted 2.4%. The CPI data release is considered the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target.
Mike Hardie, the ONS' head of inflation said in a statement:"Consumers paid more for theatre shows, sea fares and new season autumn clothing last month. However, mobile phone charges, and furniture and household goods had a downward effect on inflation".
No more UK releases
The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. The Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. The cover webinar will begin at 12:20 GMT.
GBP/USD short term review
In the near-term future, the rate should move downwards to bounce off the upper boundary of the large pattern with the support of the 55-hour and the 200-hour simple moving averages to trade in the 1.3250 area during the day.On the other hand, the rate may break the large channel again to trade near the monthly at R1 1.3185 on Friday.
Hourly Chart
On Thursday, the surge, which was not caused immediately but followed the publication of the UK Retail Sales data, broke the upper trend line of a medium ascending pattern.
Although, that is not seen as a negative development. The reason for that is the fact that the currency rate was expected to surge up to the 1.3285 level in the borders of the pattern. Instead the level was reached in a sudden jump.
Daily chart
The gradual increase of short GBP/USD positions on the Swiss foreign exchange has stopped. On Friday, 53% of open positions were short, compared to 54% previously.
In the meantime, trader set up orders, which indicate where the rate most likely will go next, are set to buy the pair in 55% of all cases. The orders previously were near the neutral mark.
It seems that Dukascopy traders were largely neutral on the pair prior to the surge, as most ignored the forecasts. Meanwhile, note that 55% of orders were set to buy on Friday, indicating that traders might buy, if the pair continues to surge.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility