- The Swiss market is 51% bullish on Wednesday
- 65% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- UK Retail Sales on Thursday morning
On Wednesday morning, the GBP/USD jumped 40 pips. The reason was the higher than expected UK CPI data at 08:30 GMT. Due to the data the currency rate broke a resistance cluster near the 1.3180 level, where at least five technical levels of significance were spotted.
British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Official Bank Rate on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 23 pips or 0.18% during a minute, right after the release. The market did not react on the data release at all at this time.
The Bank of England released Bank of England Official Bank Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 0.75%. The Votes and Monetary Policy Summary together with the MPC Official Bank Rate data release came out today at 11:00 GMT, in which all votes were in favor to hold the rate unchanged.
The Central Bank said: "Since the Committee's previous meeting, there have been indications, most prominently in financial markets, of greater uncertainty about future developments in the (EU) withdrawal process."
Next UK release is on Thursday morning
On Wednesday at 08:30 GMT the UK CPI was published. However, that is not all for the day.
At 14:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data will be published. As usual, it is expected to cause fluctuations in the 50 base point range on the oil price charts.
On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders will be set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT.
The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
GBP/USD short term review
The rate broke the resistance of 50.00% Fibo, the weekly R1 at the 1.3178 mark and the monthly R1 at the 1.3185 mark due to fundamentals on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Most likely, the rate will move upwards to the upper boundary of the trend-line.Moreover, the monthly R1 at the 1.3185 should give an additional support to the rate to surge upwards near the 1.3250 level.
Hourly Chart
The recently adjusted ascending pattern of the daily chart was not broken during the UK CPI announcement. The upper trend line of the pattern actually managed to hold the currency exchange rate from surging in the aftermath of the jump upwards.
However, that does not necessarily mean that a decline is about to occur. Most likely the pivot points that were previously providing resistance might support the pair from the downside. In that case the rate will surge up to the 1.3285 level in the borders of the ascending channel.
Daily chart
After the data release some Swiss Traders bought the GBP/USD, as, instead of the open positions being perfectly balanced in the Swiss market, 51% of open positions were long after the UK CPI release.
In the meantime, trader set up orders, which indicate where the rate most likely will go next, are set to buy the pair in 51% of all cases. The orders have remained almost neutral during the recent past.
The fact that nothing changed during the breaking of a strong resistance and the data release indicates that Swiss traders are still looking for long term signals.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility