GBP/USD gains more than expected

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • The Swiss market is neutral on Tuesday
  • 63% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
  • No GBP/USD affecting data until Wednesday

The surge of the GBP/USD reached above the 1.3160 level, breaking a long term pattern's resistance line. Although, the pair did not reach resistance levels near the 1.3180 mark. Due to that reason the direction of the GPB/USD remains a mystery for now.

British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Official Bank Rate on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 23 pips or 0.18% during a minute, right after the release. The market did not react on the data release at all at this time.

The Bank of England released Bank of England Official Bank Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 0.75%. The Votes and Monetary Policy Summary together with the MPC Official Bank Rate data release came out today at 11:00 GMT, in which all votes were in favor to hold the rate unchanged.

The Central Bank said: "Since the Committee's previous meeting, there have been indications, most prominently in financial markets, of greater uncertainty about future developments in the (EU) withdrawal process."

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Empty Economic Calendar until Wednesday





On Wednesday at 08:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the platform ten minutes before the event to watch the coverage.

On the same day at 14:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data will be published. As usual, it is expected to cause fluctuations in the 50 base point range on the oil price charts.

On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders will be set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT.

The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.

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GBP/USD short term review

The British pound appreciated 0.77 % against the US Dollar since Monday's session. During Tuesday morning hours, the currency exchange pair broke the upper boundary of the medium ascending pattern to trade near the weekly R1 at the 1.3178 mark and the monthly R1 at the 1.3185 mark.

The 161.80% Fibo combined with the weekly R1 and the monthly R1 should retrace the British pound back into the medium pattern to trade near the weekly pivot point at the 1.3050 level during Tuesday's trading session.

However, the rate might take supports of the technical indicators to surge near the upper line of the large descending channel at the 1.3225 level.

Hourly Chart



During the recent surge the second ascending pattern was broken by the GBP/USD. Due to that reason another version of the pattern has been drawn.

The current version is not using the low levels of the candles as reference points, but rather the bottoms of the candles. By using this channel one can observe that the upper trend line of the pattern is strengthening the resistance cluster near the 1.3180 mark.

Daily chart






Swiss traders wait for signals

The Swiss traders were perfectly neutrally positioned in regards to the GBP/USD, as open positions on SWFX were positioned 50/50.

In the meantime, trader set up orders, which indicate where the rate most likely will go next, are set to sell the pair in 52% of all cases. The orders have remained almost neutral during the recent past.

The new information reveals that there is no longer even the slightest domination of either long or short positions.


Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility

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