- The Swiss market open positions are positioned neutral
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 57% of all cases
- US CPI will affect the pair
On Thursday, the USD/JPY traded near the 111.50 mark after passing most hourly chart's resistance levels. However, these levels had shown themselves in the past as weak and unable to hold the currency exchange rate at a set level. Due to that reason, they provide little to no guidance.
Last week was full of US data. For example see the video with the cover of the release of various US employment data sets on Friday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released Non-Farm Employment Change data better-than-expected of 201k compared with forecasted 191K. Note, that the Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate were released at the same time with the Non-Farm Employment Change.
This data release was significant for the United States. The numbers have shown that unemployment rate fell down, which helped unemployed people find more than 200,000 jobs in August. The wage increase was also significant, the largest annual wage increase since 2009. Overall, we can observe that the US economy is doing well.
US CPI at 12:30 will cause a bounce
In regards to what might impact the USD/JPY from a fundamental perspective on Thursday, only one event pops into mind. Namely, the US Consumer Price Index will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The event will be covered on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the webinar ten minutes before the release by clicking on the notification on the trading platform or the link below.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the future, most likely, the rate should go upwards due to the SMAs support combined with the help of the large descending channel upper boundary line, giving a new direction to the USD/JPY pair on Thursday.However, the weekly R1 at the 111.72 may resist to push the rate back to the previously drawn pattern.
Hourly Chart
The most important notable fact from the daily chart is the location of the 55-day simple moving average at the 111.20 level. This SMA has been pushing the rate higher for the past three days.
Most likely it will continue to provide support to the rate also in the future.
Daily chart
The Swiss Foreign exchange retail traders keep bouncing around the 50/50 proportion in their open positions. On Thursday, they were almost perfectly balanced, as 50.71% of trader set up positions were long at 10:00 GMT.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders, which could provide momentum to one or the other side, were also balanced.
In addition, at other brokerages the same sentiment could be observed. Trades at Oanda were perfectly neutral on Thursday. Although, Saxo Bank sentiment was slightly bearish, as 54% of open positions were short at the brokerage.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility