- The Swiss market sentiment is 54% bearish
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL in 53% of cases
- US Employment shakes markets on Friday
On Friday, the USD/JPY erased last doubts that a decline of the currency rate will continue. Namely, it broke through support levels near the 111.00 levels and declined.
The last notable released data set, which influenced the USD/JPY currency exchange rate, was published last week.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Prelim GDP data that came better-than-expected. Namely, the GDP grew by 4.2%, compared with the forecast 4.0%. The data release showed that the US currency should be more demanded than previously though.
An analyst at Dukascopy Bank SA comments: "There are three types of GDP releases, released a month apart from each other. The most significant version is called the Advance GDP, which is the most significant against other GDP releases. Prelim GDP is an insignificant release, which doesn't affect the market a lot. This time was not an exception."
Big moves expected due to the US
On Friday, at 12:30 GMT three US employment data sets will be published. They are expected to cause a reaction in the financial markets larger than any other US data release.
Dukascopy Analytics will cover the data release live on the bank's webinar platform. The event will begin at 12:20 GMT.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near future, most likely the rate will surge to the monthly pivot point at the 111.02 level during the trading day. Meanwhile, the weekly S1 at the 110.61 should provide significant support for the currency rate.Besides, if the rate will meet the monthly PP at the 111.02 level, most likely the rate will go downwards due to the strong resistance of the SMAs and 23.60% Fibo at the 111.15 level.
Hourly Chart
The trend line of the descending pattern managed to hold its ground on Thursday and forced the USD/JPY downwards. Most likely due to that the pair will begin a descent, which will last into October.
Daily chart
During the morning hours of the day, 54% of trader open positions were long. Previously, they were 52% long and before that 52% short. It clearly shows that there was buying done by Dukascopy traders during the last couple of days.
On Friday trader set up orders were set to sell the pair in 53% of all cases. Previously, buy orders dominated, and the orders were perfectly balanced on Wednesday.
The brokerages with more long term clients are no longer bullish. Saxo Bank traders are 52% short. Meanwhile, OANDA traders have 53% of open positions at the brokerage short.
It can be observed that the retail sector did not clearly take advantage of the recent bounce off, as on Friday the SWFX sentiment was still neutral. Moreover, at other brokerages, the sentiment was also neutral. These factors combined indicate that the market largely has no clear opinion on the pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility