- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish today
- 57% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Minor US releases and Crude Oil
The combined strength of the support levels near the 1.1550 mark managed to push the EUR/USD higher. Namely, the rate managed to push though the 55-day SMA and reach a weekly pivot point at 1.1640 mark.
There hasn't been any fresh EUR/USD impacting data being released for more than a week now. The last data set was the US Preliminary GDP.
The European Single Currency weakened against the US Dollar, following the US Prelim GDP data release last Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 6 pips or 0.05% at the time of the release but the whole drop totalled 10 pips or 0.09%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Prelim GDP data that came better-than-expected. Namely, the GDP grew by 4.2%, compared with the forecasted 4.0%. The data release showed that the US currency should be more demanded than previously though.
Minor US data and Crude Oil Inventories
Most major financial instruments will start suddenly bouncing around on US macroeconomic data releases on Thursday, as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released at 12:15 GMT and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be out at 14:00 GMT.
In addition, the US Crude Oil Inventories data release at 15:00 GMT will cause fluctuations mainly in oil prices and some currency pairs, which are influenced by the commodity.
Moreover, it will continue into Friday. On Friday, at 12:30 GMT three US employment data sets will be published.
EUR/USD short term review
The 200-hour simple moving average stopped the currency rate at the 1.1640 mark during midnight hours.The rate will most likely approach the support of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages either one by one or combined near the 1.16 level. In another scenario, the currency rate might find support in the SMAs and surge.
In addition, note that a smaller SMAs crossing of a larger one, which might occur, is seen by a lot of market participants as a signal to buy.
Hourly Chart
The watchers of the daily chart have been waiting for a point of reference, which could be used to update the daily chart. The point was available on Thursday, as the recent bounce provided another point of reference.
The result of the additional charting is a long term ascending pattern. If this pattern holds its ground and pushes the rate higher, the currency exchange rate could reach above the 1.1900 level until October
Daily chart
Swiss retail market trader sentiment, which is mostly short term oriented, was 61% long on Thursday. The short term retail traders have not been changing their positions, as most are just riding the surge upwards.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 56% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 51% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 54% short.
All of the sentiment information provides us with the understanding of the collective market thought.
Namely, the EUR/USD has still open short term long positions, which have close by stop losses and take profits that can be observed on the SWFX sentiment. Meanwhile, the longer term traders have become more or less neutral in the recent trading session.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility