- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish today
- 57% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Only Canadian data will influence the markets
On Thursday morning the EUR/USD pair was making attempts to find support near the 1.1690 mark. Traders should watch the lower trend line of an ascending pattern, the 55-hour SMA and a monthly pivot point that were providing support to the rate.
The European Single Currency weakened against the US Dollar, following the US Prelim GDP data release on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 6 pips or 0.05% at the time of the release but the whole drop totalled 10 pips or 0.09%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Prelim GDP data that came better-than-expected. Namely, the GDP grew by 4.2%, compared with the forecasted 4.0%. The data release showed that the US currency should be more demanded than previously though.
Canadian data will rule the day
The week's last notable event will be the publication of the monthly Canadian GDP at 12:30 on Thursday. This data set is set to give the largest reaction from all of the releases this week, as CAD GDP has been constantly giving a reaction of at least 40 base points each month on the USD/CAD.
EUR/USD meets monthly PP
The European Single Currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Thursday morning. The currency pair bounced off the bottom of the trend line and the monthly pivot point near 1.1690. In addition, the currency pair was supported by 55-hour SMA. The EUR/ USD rate was trading lower than the previous high of 1.1730 which we could see on Tuesday at noon.The technical indicators were flashing bullish signal, and it was expected that the rate might break the weekly resistance level R1 and Fibonacci retracement level of 38.20% near 1.1715 level during Thursday's trading session.
Hourly Chart
After reviewing the daily chart the most dominant pattern was spotted. It is a massive scale descending channel pattern, which has been guiding the rate downwards since February. The recent surge provided the needed reference point to properly drawn the just mentioned channel.
On the chart one can observe that the recent surge represents the pair's first move in the aftermath of the announcement of Jerome Powell. This move most likely is the first one in the borders of a large scale pattern. The large scale pattern will be junior to the already mentioned dominant pattern and show a swing in the borders of the larger pattern.
Daily chart
The proportion of long positions to short positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange has largely remained unchanged, as 59% of the short term oriented Swiss traders were long. Previously 61% of traders were long.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 56% are set to sell the EUR/USD. This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 59% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are 54% short.
All of the sentiment information provides us with the understanding of the collective market thought. Namely, the EUR/USD has still open short term long positions, which have close by stop losses and take profits that can be observed on the SWFX sentiment. Meanwhile, the longer term traders have already moved to the bear side and shorted the pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility