- SWFX market sentiment is 68% bullish today
- 71% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Only Canadian data on Friday
On Friday morning the common European currency continued its slight recovery against the US Dollar. The currency exchange rate fluctuated near the 1.14 mark during the early hours of the day's trading.
The Greenback weakened against the European Single Currency, following the United States Building Permits release on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair 1 minute candle gained only 4 pips, or 0.03% at the release time, but combined with the buying action occurring before the data was released, there was a surge of 17 pips or 0.15% in total.
The Census Bureau released US Building Permits data that came in line with expectation of 1.30 Million. There was no change between actual and forecasted data this time.
Scott Volling, principal at PricewaterhouseCoopers said: "June appeared to be an anomaly, but July results indicate a trend. With permits still fairly solid, we will need to see if the trend continues into the late summer/early fall or if recent permits translate to stronger starts in the coming months ".
Canadian data at 12:30
Friday's economic calendar has only one notable data release on it. Although, it is a Canadian one that is only going to influence the Canadian Dollar pairs. Namely, the Canadian CPI data will be released at 12:30 GMT.
The event will be covered by the Dukascopy analysts on the bank's live webinar platform. The cover will begin at 12:00 GMT. This time it is early, as traders will be shown, how to prepare for a data release.
EUR/USD expected to go up
Despite surging early on Thursday, the Euro failed to pick up momentum against the US Dollar, as it was pressured from above by the psychological 1.14 level. Support was set by the 55-hour SMA near 1.1316. These two barriers forced the rate to trade in a narrow range the whole session yesterday.Technical indicators are still bullish. This means that the Euro could find support at the 100-hour SMA and the monthly S3 followed by a surge towards the monthly S2, the 200-hour moving average and the upper boundary of a medium-term channel at 1.1470. A move above this level is not yet expected.
In case the 55-hour SMA is breached to the downside, a trend-line which is expected to limit any bearish gains is located at 1.13.
Hourly Chart
Due to the recent sudden drop a full review of the daily chart has been conducted. There are couple of main points to describe.
First of all relevant Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn, which indicate that the drop was being held back by a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. On Friday that level was passed. The next supporting Fibonacci retracement level is at the 1.1284 mark located 61.80% retracement level.
Meanwhile, the most notable fact is the discovery of the large scale descending pattern, which represents the currency exchange rate's decline throughout 2018. Although, the pattern's support line is not going to provide support in the upcoming months, as it is as low as the 1.10 mark.
Daily chart
The Swiss affiliated trader sentiment has not changed during the past trading sessions. During the morning hours 68% of trader open positions were long.
However, throughout the week the retail sector was preparing to close their long positions and do additional selling, as trader set up orders were set to sell in more than 70% of all cases throughout the week. On Friday, 72% of orders were set to dump the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders are also bullish on the EUR/USD pair as 57% of set ups are long. However, SAXO bank traders are almost neutral, as only 54% of their trader open positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility