- Swiss market sentiment is 54% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- US data at 12:30 GMT
On Thursday morning the USD/JPY currency exchange rate traded just below a strong resistance cluster, which was located at the 111.00 mark.
The Census Bureau released Retail Sales data that came better-than-expected of 0.5% to forecasted 0.1%. The data represents a good sign for the Greenback, as well as an increase of total value of sales at the retail level.
Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase said: "It gives us comfort that consumers are nowhere near to being as overstretched as they were in the years heading into the Great Recession".
Minor US data incoming
Note that minor US data being released at 12:30 GMT might influence the currency exchange rate. The event's cover will begin at 12:20 GMT on the Dukascopy live webinar platform.
USD/JPY tests 111.00
Strong downside risks prevailed early on Wednesday which resulted in USD/JPY falling 93 pips until late in the evening when this bearish sentiment reversed back to the upside. Significant advances did not follow, being halted by the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 110.90.It is likely that the rate lacks the necessary upward momentum to dash through this cluster today, as no important fundamental data releases that could add bullish momentum are not scheduled today. In line with this bearish scenario, the US Dollar is should be pushed back down to the bottom boundary of a five-week falling wedge at 110.00.
In the unlikely event that the rate breaches 110.90, another important resistance is the breached channel line and the weekly R1 at 111.50.
Hourly Chart
The previously drawn descending pattern on the daily chart has been broken. This is one of the cases, where the forecast has been wrong. Namely, the US Dollar has gained strength across all charts and the USD/JPY was no exception.
Daily chart
Swiss traders remain bearish. Namely, 54% of trader open positions are short.
In the meantime, 52% of trader set up orders are set to sell the US Dollar in favour to the Japanese Yen. Previously, 52% of orders were set to buy.
Saxo Bank traders are still shorting the USD/JPY, as 55% of set up orders at the brokerage are short. Meanwhile, OANDA traders are 55% long on the pair.
The drastic changes in the SWFX sentiment during the last trading sessions reveals that the retail trader sector must be taking advantage of the intraday movements on the hourly chart. However, on Thursday the sharp changes in positions seemed to have stopped.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility