- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bullish today
- 59% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- US Building Permits at 12:30 GMT
On Thursday morning the common European currency slightly recovered against the US Dollar. The recovery was more or less expected to last. Meanwhile, note that medium impact data will be released at 12:30 GMT.
The Greenback strengthened against the European Single Currency, following the United States Retail Sales release on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 6 pips, or 0.06%. The change is insignificant and did not affect seriously the whole image of the main currency pair.
The Census Bureau released Retail Sales data that came better-than-expected of 0.5% to forecasted 0.1%. The data represents a good sign for the Greenback, as well as an increase of total value of sales at the retail level.
Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase said: "It gives us comfort that consumers are nowhere near to being as overstretched as they were in the years heading into the Great Recession".
Medium US releases at 12:30 GMT
Thursday's economic calendar can be considered empty by some. However, at 12:30 GMT market participants should watch the medium impact data sets being released. It is possible that the combined strength of three US data sets causes fluctuations in the financial markets.
The event's cover will begin at 12:20 GMT on the Dukascopy live webinar platform.
EUR/USD recovers losses
Even though the weekly S1 did not hold the Euro mid-Wednesday, its subsequent fall against the US Dollar was not significant due to the psychological 1.13 level being located nearby.Bears were not able to breach this 13-month low, thus sending the pair considerably higher during the following hours. It managed to breach the monthly S3 and the 55–hour SMA along the way, thus finally catching up with technical indicators which were showing an upward-sloping tendency already on Tuesday.
Given that the rate breached the 100-hour SMA, it is likely that the current surge continues in this session, as well. The nearest resistance is the relatively distant monthly S2, the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 1.1470. Meanwhile, a fall is unlikely to go below 1.13.
Hourly Chart
Due to the recent sudden drop a full review of the daily chart has been conducted. There are couple of main points to describe.
First of all relevant Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn, which indicate that the drop was being held back by a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. On Friday that level was passed. The next supporting Fibonacci retracement level is at the 1.1284 mark located 61.80% retracement level.
Meanwhile, the most notable fact is the discovery of the large scale descending pattern, which represents the currency exchange rate's decline throughout 2018. Although, the pattern's support line is not going to provide support in the upcoming months, as it is as low as the 1.10 mark.
Daily chart
The Swiss affiliated trader sentiment has not changed during the past trading sessions. During the morning hours 68% of trader open positions were long.
However, throughout the week the retail sector was preparing to close their long positions and do additional selling, as trader set up orders were set to sell in more than 70% of all cases throughout the week. On Thursday, 72% of orders were set to dump the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders are also bullish on the EUR/USD pair as 58% of set ups are long. However, SAXO bank traders are almost neutral, as only 53% of their trader open positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility