- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
- First notable event on Tuesday
The US Dollar has continued to trade near the 111.00 mark. However, on the daily chart one could notice that the currency exchange rate has been booking lower low levels with each trading session.
The Census Bureau released the monthly Durable Goods Orders that came out lower-than-expected of 1.0% compare with forecasted 3.0%, but better than previous period.
"A senior investment manager Patrick O'Donnell, from Aberdeen Standard Investments, said: "It looks like the European side is trying to acquiesce to Trump's demands. They've got more to lose if tariffs look to be placed on autos, for example. So over multi-month horizon, we'll probably see lower tariffs globally".
Wait for Tuesday
On Monday there are no notable data releases set to occur. However, there is something very important set to occur for the USD/JPY on Tuesday. Namely, the Bank of Japan interest rate will be announced during the day.
Meanwhile, note that on Monday Dukascopy Analytics will host the weekly economic calendar review webinar, which will begin at 12:00 GMT.
USD/JPY recovery expected
The USD/JPY currency pair is fluctuating in between the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for the third consecutive session. These moving averages pushed the rate slightly lower, but the pair has nevertheless remained in the 110.80/111.20 range.The Greenback later breached the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for a brief period of time, but failed to accelerate and thus remained fluctuating there until Friday morning.
It is apparent on the chart that the US Dollar is approaching the senior channel near 110.70. This support should not be breached in this session, thus giving more weight to the bullish scenario. The Greenback could be guided by the 200-period (4H) and 100-hour SMAs located at 111.00 on Monday. Upside target today is the weekly R1, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly R1 at 111.50.
In case this acceleration does not occur, traders should wait for a soon breakout from the senior channel and the 55-day SMA and a subsequent fall down to 110.00.
Hourly Chart
The lower trend line of the dominant ascending channel pattern has continued to hold its ground, as the currency
Daily chart
SWFX traders are SHORT on the USD/JPY pair, as 60% of open positions were bearish during the morning hours. Meanwhile, Swiss trader set up orders are set to buy in 51% of all cases.
It can be deducted from this information that retail traders are expecting a surge. However, they will not provide the needed momentum for a push higher, because everyone, who wanted to be long on the pair, already have opened their positions.
Meanwhile, the market sentiments of OANDA traders are bullish on the USD/JPY pair as 57% of open positions are long. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 54% bullish in regards to this exchange rate.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility