- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bullish (-1%)
- 60% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Press Conference, US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Unemployment Claims
The Euro is approaching weekly resistance at 1.1750.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Retail Sales data release. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.12%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.7088 area.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
ECB benchmark rate
The European Central Bank is set to publish its Main Refinancing Rate at 1145GMT. Analysts expect that this benchmark would be left at the current level – 0.00%. The Bank's press conference is scheduled 45 minutes later.
The US Census Bureau will release the monthly Durable Goods Orders and its core reading at 1230GMT. The weekly Unemployment Claims are published at the same time.
EUR/USD steady before fundamentals
The first part of Wednesday's trading session showed the same lack of direction as during the preceding session. The pair was restricted from the upside by the 55-hour SMA, while support was provided by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 1.1680.The market was supplied with bullish momentum in the evening, as the Euro was boosted by expectations of a possible trade deal between the US and the EU. This pushed the rate up to a strong July resistance at 1.1750. A downward-sloping trend-line and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement are likewise located in this area.
Technical indicators flash mixed signals; however, it is more likely that the rate appreciates towards 1.18 in this session. Traders should watch closely data releases today.
Hourly Chart
The massive decline which started mid-April was stopped by the bottom boundary of the senior channel a strong support level near 1.1550.
The pair has since been moving along this line, restricted by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement line and the 55-day SMA. The latter was breached this week, pointing to further advance within the following weeks. A strong resistance cluster to watch out for is the 100- and 200-day SMAs near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Euro is weakening
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 58% of open positions being long today (-1%) . This sentiment has been fluctuating around the 60% mark for a couple of weeks now, demonstrating that traders are still expecting the Euro to strengthen against the Greenback in the medium and long term.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 54% bullish and the US Dollar is 59% bearish. If looking at these readings during the previous two weeks, it is apparent that Euro bulls are gradually weakening.
OANDA traders are bullish with 51% of open positions being long today. This, however, is a considerable fall from 56% on Wednesday, as institutional investors are moving towards equilibrium. Saxo Bank clients are now neutral, compared to 58% long position on the previous day.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility