- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish (-1%)
- 56% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: German Ifo Business Climate, Euro zone's M3 Money Supply y/y
Bearish momentum should still be the dominant force today.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Retail Sales data release. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.12%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.7088 area.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Quiet day
The only fundamental data releases today are of medium importance. The German Institute for Economic Research is set to release its Business Climate index for July at 0800GMT. The monthly ECB M3 Monetary Supply is likewise published at the same time.
EUR/USD remains near strong support
Tuesday's trading session lacked volatility, as various moving averages were limiting strong up– or down-moves. The pair, however, still remains trading in a minor descending channel which is a part of a senior symmetrical triangle.The pair's movement today should depend on its ability to breach the important support cluster located at 1.1680. If this barrier is breached, the Euro is expected to move closer to the senior pattern line and the weekly S1 near 1.1620. The Euro's movement in the senior pattern and technical indicators support this bearish scenario.
On the other hand, resistance should be found at the weekly R1 at 1.18. By and large, this session could be relatively calm, as no significant data releases are scheduled for today.
Hourly Chart
The massive decline which started mid-April was stopped by the bottom boundary of the senior channel a strong support level near 1.1550.
The general tendency in the long term should be northwards. In terms of resistance, it is likely that the 55-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 provide a strong barrier in July.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 59% of open positions being long for today (-1%) . This sentiment has been fluctuating around the 60% mark for a couple of weeks now, demonstrating that traders are still expecting the Euro to strengthen against the Greenback in the medium and long term.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 55% bullish and the US Dollar is 60% bearish.
OANDA traders have once again become bullish with 56% of open positions being long today (+4%). This number was neutral on Monday. The same situation is apparent with Saxo Bank whose clients hold 58% long positions (+7%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility