- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bullish
- 55% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- No fundamental releases, Dukascopy weekly webinar at 1200GMT
It is likely that the strong resistance cluster near 1.17 pressures the Euro back lower today.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Retail Sales data release. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.12%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.7088 area.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Quiet day
The economic calendar is empty in this session. Tune in for a Dukascopy webinar at 1200GMT.
EUR/USD slows down near 1.1680
The Euro weakened against the US Dollar on Thursday morning, driven lower by the combined resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. This fall ended slightly below the weekly S1 at 1.1580 which was followed by a strong 50-pip hourly surge later in the day.This allowed the pair to surpass the 55-hour moving average, but nevertheless was not enough to continue advancing past the 100– and 200-hour ones. Even though the direction of technical indicators is pointed upwards, it is unlikely that this 1.1680 area is breached today, as it is likewise strengthened by the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs.
Thus, the general direction of the Euro should be either south down to 1.1550 or sideways in between this significant resistance and the weekly S1 located at 1.16.
Hourly Chart
The massive decline which started mid-April was stopped by the bottom boundary of the senior channel a strong support level near 1.1550.
The general tendency in the long term should be northwards. In terms of resistance, it is likely that the 55-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 provide a strong barrier in July.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 60% of open positions being long for today . This sentiment has been fluctuating around the 60% mark for a couple of weeks now, demonstrating that traders are still expecting the Euro to strengthen against the Greenback in the medium and long term.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 53% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
OANDA traders are gradually becoming more bullish with 56% of open positions being long in this session. Saxo Bank clients have also returned in the bullish territory with 53% long positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility