USD/JPY reveals medium pattern

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 52% long
  • Pending orders in the 100-pip are neutral
  • Busy Thursday for US data releases

On Thursday the USD/JPY currency pair revealed a medium term ascending pattern. The reveal was expected since yesterday and provides new reference points for charting.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released quarterly Gross Domestic Product data that came out lower-than-expected of 2.0%, and was also lower than the previous period.

According to Mario Blascak, the European Chief Analyst: "The largest positive contributions to GDP stem from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, and exports. The biggest drag in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending and a downturn in residential fixed investment. "

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US data releases shaking the markets





For the whole week the US macroeconomic data traders were expecting Thursday. The day has come. There will be notable data releases occurring that will influence the financial markets through the strength of the US Dollar.

There will be two releases. Namely, ADP Non-farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT.

Both data releases will covered by the Dukascopy Analytics team on the bank's live webinar platform. Both coverages will begin ten minutes before the data gets released.

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USD/JPY finds support and reveals pattern

It was already speculated on Wednesday that there should exist a long term ascending pattern dominant to the junior downwards aimed channel on the USD/JPY chart. That pattern was revealed on Thursday.

Namely, as the rate rebounded against the support of the 200-hour simple moving average, the event provided a reference point for the dominant ascending pattern.

The rebounded resulted in a surge, which passed the 55-hour SMA only to be stopped by the 100-hour SMA. If the 100-hour SMA at 110.67 gets properly passed, the rate will face no resistance. However, a new short term pattern should reveal itself in the near future.

Hourly Chart



The daily chart provides additional information. Namely, it was the support line of the previously pierced ascending long term pattern, which stopped the decline experienced on Wednesday.

However, the close by location of various support levels just below the lower trend line of the ascending pattern might have strengthened the trend line.



Daily chart





Swiss traders remain bullish

On Thursday the Swiss market sentiment remained slightly bullish. Namely 52% of open positions were long. This means that retail traders are not long in the short term.

Meanwhile, the pending orders remained slightly bearish, as 51% of them were set to sell on.

It could be clearly observed that the dominant part of retail traders closed their long positions already on Monday. Meanwhile, some already were expecting a rebound to take place in the near future.

OANDA traders have become 52% bullish, compared to the neutral sentiment previously.

Meanwhile, Saxo Bank traders are 52% bullish.


Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility

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