- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish (-1%)
- 60% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECB President Draghi and FOMC Members Williams and Bostic to speak
EUR/USD remains weak near one-year low.
The Markit released Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data that came out better-than-expected of 54.4, compared to the 53.9 in the previous period.
"At first glance, the mild acceleration in the rate of output growth and rise in the headline PMI would appear positive," Rob Dobson, a Markit director, said. "However, scratch beneath the surface and the rebound in the PMI from April's 17-month low is far from convincing."
Draghi speaks
This trading session includes three speeches only. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is set to deliver opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking at 1730GMT. Meanwhile, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy and his San Francisco counterpart John Williams will be delivering closing remarks at a conference on banking culture at 1700GMT and 2000GMT, respectively.
EUR/USD fails to accelerate from 1.16
After the massive 2.28% plunge against the US Dollar on Thursday, the common European currency was expected to accelerate during the following trading session. The pair did manage to gain some momentum during the first part of the day, but nevertheless failed to reach the 55–hour SMA near 1.1650. The rate has remained fluctuating near the 1.16 mark since late Thursday.Despite showing mixed signals today, technical indicators are starting to recover from their lows. This could indicate to further upside potential today. This advance is not expected to be significant, as the Euro's movement on Friday does show that it has remained weak.
The session high should be the 100-hour SMA at 1.17, while a fall below its one-year low and the weekly S1 at 1.15 is very unlikely this week.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.
The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 55- and 200-day SMAs and the monthly R1 near 1.20. Daily technical indicators are likewise pointing to a soon recovery.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 63% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the pair with 58% of open positions being long today (-3%). Saxo bank has likewise returned in the bullish territory with 53% long positions (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility