A traditional ascending triangle is a continuation pattern within an up-trend; this time around it was preceded by a sell-off, which increases the uncertainty regarding the direction of a break-out. Considering the technical indicators however, the risks are skewed to the upside. Accordingly, the base case scenario is a close above the level of 137 yen and a subsequent development
Both from the fundamental and from the technical perspectives there are almost no reasons to doubt bullishness of USD/SGD. The currency pair is trading within an upward channel, and the technicals are mostly giving ‘buy' signals. Talking about the shorter term, the US Dollar is up for a sharp correction. The currency is forming a triple top pattern within the
In the near term the outlook is bearish. For now the currency should respect the falling resistance line at 0.7350; the target is the lower edge of the pattern at 0.72. The situation in the daily chart is different. The upside risks are significant and are increasing. AUD/USD is currently forming a falling wedge, and a close above 0.7450 will
The Euro failed to surpass resistance at 0.7160 on Jul 27, and as a result, we expect the currency pair to visit the Jul 17 low at 0.6936 while trading between two trend-lines. EUR/GBP should soon test the upper boundary of the channel, and from there the exchange rate will be in a good position to launch an attack on
In mid-June the rate at which Euro appreciates against the Kiwi slowed down. Nevertheless, the outlook is bullish towards EUR/NZD. The first reason is that the currency pair has recently formed an upward channel. Secondly, the market respects the long-term moving average that acts as support. Thirdly, the daily and weekly technical indicators are mostly pointing upwards. During the next
The bearish channel in the hourly chart of EUR/SGD is not well-defined, and we require more confirmations of the trend-lines forming it. Still, the bias is negative, and this is reinforced by the near-term technical indicators. Once the 200-hour SMA is broken, the target will be 1.4984, where the weekly pivot point merges with the lower boundary of the channel.
The US Dollar has been bullish relative to the Turkish Lira since mid-July, and for now this tendency is likely to continue. USD/TRY is expected to confirm support at 2.7771 and commence a recovery towards the June high, where the currency pair will also meet the upper edge of the pattern and the weekly R2 level. There the Greenback
Given the current situation in the CHF/JPY pair, the Swiss Franc is likely to depreciate even more against the Japanese Yen in the nearest future. While the ceiling is at 128.88 (down-trend and monthly S1), the target is the lower boundary of the channel at 127.18. If this support is broken, the next objective will be 125.50, a level that
EUR/AUD tested a solid support level 1.37 in the second half of April, and since then the exchange rate has been in a strong upward trend. Right now the Euro is undergoing a bearish correction, but the decline should come to an end around 1.4750. From there EUR/AUD is likely to launch another attack on the 2014 Dec high, but
The Euro has been outperforming the safe-haven Yen since mid-July, and it appears the tendency is going to persist for some time. EUR/JPY should rebound from the rising support line at 136.41 and then surpass the Jul 27 high; the target will be a cluster of resistances at 137.80/60.On the other hand, if the pair slips under 136.40, the losses
Bulls have failed to push the currency pair through resistance at 0.9640, and AUD/CAD is now trading within the boundaries of the bearish channel. During the next few days the Aussie is expected to descend through the nearby supports towards 0.9380/70. There the lower trend-line is reinforced by the weekly S2 and Jun low.At the same time, if the price
While in the long run we have almost no doubts that the Sterling will keep outperforming the Loonie, the near-term outlook is not as positive. GBP/CAD has recently encountered an upper trend-line of the channel, meaning the price is likely to trade either flat or to the downside. In case of a dip the losses are to be limited by
July was a bearish month for AUD/USD, during which the currency pair formed a downward-sloping channel. This tendency is expected to continue, and there should be a sell-off from the upper boundary of the pattern down to 0.70. There are two significant supports the Aussie has to break first however, namely the weekly PP and monthly S3 at 0.7310 and
Given the recent developments in the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is likely to keep underperforming the Yen for now. Although the technical studies are mostly pointing upwards at the moment, the price trading just below the trend-line is considered to be a stronger signal. Accordingly, the base case scenario is a sell-off from 123.70 down to 122.90. Conversely, even
Formation of a bearish channel implies a negative outlook. This idea is reinforced in the daily chart, since the pair has recently broken through the neck-line of the double bottom. Right now however, the near-term risks are heavily skewed in favour of a rally, being that we have approached the apex of the falling wedge that has emerged within the
The Australian Dollar keeps underperforming the Swiss Franc, and for now there are very few arguments in favour of a break-out. AUD/CHF has recently made a U-turn at 0.6950 (Jul 10 low and monthly S2), and the base case scenario is a failure of a bullish momentum at 0.7130, where the down-trend is reinforced by the Jul 21 high and
NZD/CAD is currently undergoing a correction phase within a major down-trend (since the second half of March). Nevertheless, there is a solid chance the currency pair has some bullish potential left. In the very near term we expect a sell-off of about 200 pips from 0.87, but around 0.85 the price should bottom out and begin a recovery. Given such
Considering the pattern the currency pair is forming, EUR/SEK is at a risk of a substantial decline. The key support is at 9.39. If the bears manage to push the price though the weekly PP, up-trend, Jul 24 low, and monthly R1, we will probably see a sell-off down to 9.2770 (Jul 16 low and monthly PP). In the meantime,
Being unable to cross resistance at 6.9030, USD/DKK turned around and is now forming a downward channel. In the near-term there is likely to be a rally, as the rate is right next to the lower boundary of the pattern. But as soon as the price recovers to 6.78, the bears should regain control of the pair. The first target
Despite the confidence with which the technical studies were showing ‘buy' signals, AUD/NZD broke through the lower boundary of the channel we discussed a week earlier. The currency pair is now forming a double top pattern, and there is a high probability the Aussie will keep ceding ground. A close below the Jul 9 low at 1.1020 will confirm the
Earlier this month USD/TRY found solid support around 1.63, which allowed the US Dollar to start a recovery. Considering that the pair has formed an upward channel, the price is likely to keep rising higher, and the target is the June maximum at 2.81. In the meantime, the immediate resistance is at 2.7537, and as soon as we get to
EUR/USD keeps forming a bullish channel after bottoming out at the beginning of the previous week. Right now the currency pair is moving away from the lower boundary of the channel towards the resistance line at 1.11, though first it will have to overcome supply at 1.1018, namely the Jul 23 high, to confirm the positive outlook. In the longer-term
USD/SGD is likely to rally in the foreseeable future. A correction, which was in place on Monday and Tuesday of this week, exhausted itself near the weekly pivot point at 1.3623. Since then, the pair has been gradually erasing losses, by following the positively-sloped 55-period SMA. Meanwhile, daily indicators are strongly bullish, assuming that the pair will not only retake
Sterling/Loonie cross is preparing to test the pattern's support line in the nearest future, which is represented by the valley between two tops of the current pattern (Jul 21 low). This demand at 2.01 is strengthened by the weekly pivot point, while some bullish momentum can even be created by the 200-hour SMA at 2.0179, where GBP/CAD is trading right