Triangle stable for GBP/JPY

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
GBP/JPY failed to follow through with a breach of the neckline of the double bottom formation observed within a medium-term time frame, which we covered in our previous analysis of the pair. Nevertheless, the pair did not lose the bullish momentum it had built up over the last developments, which it clearly showed with a golden cross formation. The latest surge was limited to the 138.56 level, causing the rate to form a descending triangle, which now implies a drop at least until the 129.39 level, where the bottom trend-line of the pattern serves as support. Some hardship should come at the 131.58/78 area, followed by 130.40. The seemingly newly formed trend-line has been, in fact, just rekindled from before when it served as support during the first half of 2016.  

Weekly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


As the pair has begun its way South, it has sketched a descending channel pattern around its movements. The channel has not proven its strength just yet, awaiting some more confirmations of the upper trend-line, which it managed to breach twice already. SMA pressures on GBP/JPY push downwards, leaving little doubt of the continuation of the triangle pattern.  

With a red Ichimoku cloud pressuring from above, Tenkan-sen has been squished below Kijun-sen and the current market price, which has cast even more doubt on whether the pair possesses any bullish potential at all.  

Daily Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Established that a dip is to come, at least in the short-term, we now look for signs of how deep the sell-off can be expected to progress. A level able to decoy the pair into further weakness is 119.29, where 2012 lows lie.  

Wednesday, September 21 bore big news for the Japanese Yen, starting off with the Monetary Policy statement and concluding with the BOJ press conference where the base money target was abandoned in favour of yield curve control and the interest rate kept at -0.1 percent. The release resulted in a 1.8% surprise movement. As Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out in the UK, more volatility might be inevitable. Carney's Cunliffe's and Forbes's speeches could overwhelm the GBP/JPY market on Thursday, with the lack of counter reactions caused by the banking holiday in Japan.

Aggregate Technical Indicators
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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