EUR/JPY's advancement stopped by 139.03/138.69

After yesterday's rally the currency pair stalled ahead of the resistance at 139.03/138.69, which consists of the 100-day SMA, 2009 highs and the one-month down-trend resistance line. Considering the strength of this supply area, we should be wary of a possibility that the Euro will fall back down to 136.72/48, namely the lower boundary of the bearish channel originated early January.

SWFX market participants have been losing faith in the ability of the common currency to appreciate. While five days ago 70% of positions were long, now—only 58%. As for the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, there is no significant difference between the buy (53%) and sell (47%) ones.