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"It's a reminder from the RBA that if they're not happy with the level of the exchange rate, they can always intervene."
- Nomura Securities (based on The Wall Street Journal)
Pair's Outlook
Pair started the week in a calm fashion, but it is rather evident it faces substantial downside risk. We expect weekly S1/monthly S2 to be tested in the nearest future. Dip below it could provoke a sell off till August low. In order to uplift most of this downside pressure the pair should advance at least above the 100-day SMA. Full pledged recovery would be possible in case the pair would manage to advance above the 55-day SMA.
Traders' Sentiment
Aussie once again is the most acquired major currency across the board. With greenback being substantially behind it, the market sentiment remains overwhelmingly (71%) bullish. Bearish side of pending orders hasn't changed and is at 56% gauge today.
© Dukascopy Bank SA