- Richard Lim, Retail Economics
Friday's data on British retail sales surprised many experts who did not expect such a notable change in March. According to the ONS, sales in the retail sector dropped 1.8% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, while analysts anticipated only a 0.3% decrease. Similarly, on a quarterly basis, retail sales lost 1.4%, which was the first negative contribution to GDP growth since the Q4 of 2013. The following decline was a result of a change in average store prices, which were continuously increasing since January. In fact, in March, consumer prices reached the highest peak since December 2014. In addition, in volume terms, goods bought in most of the sub-sectors, except for department stores and household goods stores, decreased. For instance, the amount of money spent in food stores in March advanced 0.3%, while the amount of purchased goods diminished 0.5% compared to the previous month. In contrast to traditional retail sales, data on online stores showed that British consumers in March spent on average 1.0B pounds per week on online stores, a 19.5% rise compared to the same period a year ago. Retail sales are tightly connected to consumer spending. Thus, weak retail sales combined with rising inflation suggest that consumer spending will unlikely provide a significant support to economic growth.
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