"The recent uptick in jobless claims is a negative at the margins. But even at this modestly elevated level, claims remain in a range that is still consistent with moderate growth."
- Plante Moran Financial Advisors
Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US surged to the highest level in six weeks for the five-day period ended January 16, judging by the Labour Department's data released Thursday. Such a move was somewhat unexpected for the markets that expected a decline from 283,000 to 279,000. However, the real weekly number came out at 293,000. This statistics coincides with the time frame when US officials are starting to survey businesses and households about employment conditions in January. Recent setbacks in terms of oil prices and strong US Dollar are putting more pressure on energy and manufacturing sectors' headcounts. Despite that, only a sustained increase in unemployment claims will be able to signal some weakness in the US labour market.
In the meantime, one of the closely watched manufacturing surveys in the US showed conditions are moving towards improvement in the Philadelphia Fed district. Survey of industrial sector produced a reading of –3 points for January, up from –5.9 points in the preceding month. At the same time, positive outlook will be affirmed only after the indicator comes back above zero. For now producers are hit by weaker global demand for US-producer goods, as new orders are falling sharply. As for the oil price rout, the Third Federal District, which includes Philadelphia, is less impacted by price declines due to smaller dependence on energy sector.
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