Overview of the previous week, this week's key events

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Market reaction to the threat of the Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus programme later this year has been exaggerated, as the EUR/USD currency pair advanced just 0.74% over the week, while U.S. major indices posted a gain between 0.1%-0.3% soon after Bernanke's speech. During his two-day long Testimony, Fed's Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pointed out that the U.S. central bank anticipates beginning tapering its monthly bond purchases later this year, however, assured that policy will remain accommodative and policymakers will respond to any signs of economic weakness. In addition to that, Bernanke warned that the Fed will be looking to the substantial progress in the labour market before considering scaling back the quantitative easing. In case of worsening conditions, the current pace will be maintained or even expanded. The monthly purchases are aimed at lowering long-term borrowing costs and should encourage borrowing and spending. On Thursday U.S. equities were more volatile, closing higher, supported by better-than-expected data of labour market and manufacturing sector. While the jobless claims dropped by 24,000 last week, a gauge of manufacturing activity in Philadelphia jumped to 19.8 in July, the highest level since March 2011, and up from 12.5 a month earlier.  

Amid last week's main disappointments, we can mention Chinese GDP report in the beginning of the trading week. The world's second largest economy slowed for a second straight quarter, with economic output expanding 7.5% on annual basis in the June quarter, meeting analysts' expectations, however, down from 7.7% a quarter earlier. Soon after the report analysts at Nomura had lowered their growth forecast for the upcoming years, saying the Chinese economy will grow 6.9% in 2014 down from 7.5% expected earlier. Outlook for this year was not revised. 

A series of economic data from Switzerland was released last week, sending mixed signals about the economic outlook. Hence, Swiss foreign trade surplus rose more than expected in June, as a fall in imports outpaced drop in exports. The country posted a 2.73 billion francs surplus in June, slightly higher compared with previous month's figure, when surplus stood at 2.2 billion. In addition to that, producer and imports prices in Switzerland rose less than expected in June from a month earlier, reflecting that manufacturers are more worried about future economic performance of the country, and raising concerns over weak growth in the second quarter. According to the Federal Statistics, the prices of domestically produced and imported goods advanced 0.1% last month, reversing May's 0.3% fall, and slightly below analysts' expectations of a 0.3% rise. The only bright spot was a survey from the ZEW Center for European Economic Research, which showed that confidence among Swiss investors improved slightly this month. A gauge of investor and analysts expectations, designed to predict the economic development during the next six months, rose to 4.8% in July, up from 2.2 points a month earlier. An index remains above the 0.0 threshold, which separates optimism from pessimism, since January 2013, however, has not reached even 2010 high, suggesting the economy is developing, albeit slower than expected. The Swiss Franc was not very volatile last week, advancing 0.03% versus the Euro and 0.8% against the greenback.

This week traders should keep an eye on New Zealand's central bank rate decision on Wednesday, while on Thursday British Office for National Statistics will unveil Q2 growth figures. 

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