ECB Hikes Rates by 25 bps Amid Middle East Conflict and Sticky Inflation Projections

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The ECB Governing Council has raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points effective 16 September 2026, lifting the Deposit Facility, Main Refinancing Operations, and Marginal Lending Facility rates to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%, respectively. This rate hike responds to persistent upward price pressures fueled by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which threatens to keep headline inflation above the 2.0% medium-term target for an extended horizon. Fresh staff projections outline headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, alongside core inflation figures of 2.5%, 2.6%, and 2.3% across the same period. Meanwhile, economic growth expectations were adjusted upward to 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028, reflecting solid underlying economic resilience.



Looking ahead, the ECB maintains a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance without pre-committing to a fixed rate trajectory, viewing risks as tilted to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic activity. Balance sheet runoff continues as planned, with both the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) shrinking at a steady pace due to the discontinuation of maturing principal reinvestments. Alongside quantitative tightening, the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) stands operational to counter unwarranted or disorderly market fragmentation across the euro area.
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