© Dukascopy Bank
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Geoffrey Yu
Senior FX Strategist UBS
EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK
Currently we have a slightly negative outlook on the Scandinavian currencies due to their apparent economic exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis and the ongoing uncertainty over the resolution of the economic doldrums. We have a below consensus view on the Euro zone and we are anticipating some growth outlook ahead. PMIs and other data across Europe are looking good right now, but we consider that these numbers are going to start worsening and this would be very bad for the Scandinavian currencies.
Our one month forecast for the Norwegian Krona is 7.70, however in three-month period we believe the Nokkie will hit the 7.80 level. As to the Swedish Krona, in February we envisage it around the 9.15 level. Still, as well as for the EUR/NOK, for the EUR/SEK currency pair we assume a further decline which will not be too aggressive - The Swedish Krona will be traded at 9.25 by in the Q2.
EUR/CHF
For the Swiss Franc the outlook is boringly stable: the pair will not move anywhere from the level 1.20. As wee the situation with the Swissie, the market is simply not willing to buy or sell this currency. We expect the floor staying at the same level as it was established in September last year.
USD/JPY
What we could say about the USD/JPY is that, obviously, the market yearns for another intervention, however, we have to wait till the price reaches 75.50 level or even lower before the Bank of Japan is willing to interfere. The UBS forecast for the pair is 77 in one-month time and 75 in a three-month period.