2026 Consumer Sentiment: A Tale of Two Economies as Wealth Gap Widens

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The preliminary February 2026 data reflects a consumer environment of marginal gains and widening inequality, where slight monthly improvements are overshadowed by a significant year-over-year decline. While the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 57.3, its highest since August 2025.

A K-shaped recovery is evident, as sentiment surged for consumers with large stock portfolios while stagnating at dismal levels for those without equity.

The Current Economic Conditions Index saw a notable jump to 58.3 from 55.4 in January, but the Index of Consumer Expectations slipped slightly to 56.6, indicating lingering caution about the future. Regarding the inflationary outlook, short-term year-ahead expectations fell to 3.5%, the lowest since early 2025, yet long-run expectations inched up to 3.4% and remain well above the pre-pandemic norms of 2.3–3.0%.



These 2026 figures highlight a prolonged period of suppressed confidence compared to the last decade, with current sentiment sitting approximately 31.8% below the historical average of 84.0. After the index fell sharply throughout 2025 to a low of 51.0 in November, it has begun a three-month streak of minor increases, though widespread anxiety persists over the erosion of personal finances due to high prices and an elevated risk of job loss. Consumer sentiment in February 2026 is experiencing a fragile, stock-market-driven rebound that has yet to reach most households, leaving the overall mood historically low as consumers grapple with high living costs and labor market uncertainty.
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