- Bullish share in the SWFX market is unchanged at 45%
- Pending orders are swinging between gains and losses, with 50-pip commands mostly set to buy the Euro
- US ISM manufacturing survey to be watched most closely among today's fundamentals
- Aggregate technical indicators on all time frames are betting on a drop of the Euro vs US Dollar
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: Euro zone Manufacturing PMI; ECB Member Coeure Speaks; ECB President Draghi Speaks; US Personal Income and Spending (Dec) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan); FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
The Euro zone's inflation accelerated in January, providing a modest relief for the European Central Bank, which is expected to slash rates again as price growth could slid to the negative territory by the spring. Consumer price growth in the currency bloc has hovered near zero for more than a year, stubbornly staying below the central bank's 2% goal. Headline inflation climbed 0.4%, up from 0.2% in December, marking the biggest increase since October 2014. Meanwhile, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased to 1.0% from 0.9%. An ongoing decline in commodity prices and slowing growth in China and emerging markets have dampened price pressures and making the target more difficult to reach. Annual inflation rate in the Euro zone's number one economy, Germany, ticked up 0.4% in January, from 0.2% in the preceding month. Furthermore, German retail sales dropped 0.2% on month in December, compared with the 0.4% increase recorded in the prior month. Measured on an annual basis, retail turnover rose 1.5% in the reported month, following a 2.4% increase in November. Meanwhile, the Spanish economy grew 0.8% in the fourth quarter amid a slowdown in global demand, while the nation's GDP added 3.5% from a year earlier.
The world's number one economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, stoking concerns about its momentum in 2016. The US gross domestic product increased at an annualized 0.7%, according to the Commerce Department, as lower oil prices continued to hurt investment by energy companies and unseasonably mild weather dent consumer spending on utilities and apparel. The US growth pace followed a 2% rate in the third quarter. Overall, the US economy grew 2.4% in 2015 after a similar growth pace in 2014. The weak growth could stoke new concerns about the nation's ability to withstand a series of major headwinds, including a slowdown in China and a stronger US Dollar that has cut profits for American manufacturers. Nevertheless, the GDP figure for the fourth quarter is only a preliminary gauge and will be a subject to revision over the next two months. In the final three months of 2015, businesses accumulated $68.6 billion worth of inventory, down from $85.5 billion in the September quarter. The small inventory build subtracted 0.45 percentage point from the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth. The US Dollar, which has appreciated 11% versus its counterparts since last January, remained a drag on exports, resulting in a trade gap that subtracted 0.47 percentage point from GDP growth in the reported period.
Upcoming fundamentals: European final PMI data ahead on Monday
Traditionally in the beginning of a new month all major European countries are releasing their final PMI indicators for the previous month. Some movement is expected for Italian production activity data where the PMI could decrease to 54.9 points from 55.6 points. Euro zone data will be released at 9:00 GMT and economists see the indicator remaining flat at 52.3 points, which indicates a moderate pace of growth. Meanwhile, President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament in Strasbourg at 16:00 GMT, while presenting the 2015 ECB Annual Report.
EUR/USD to bounce off July 2015 low
EUR/USD moved in a wide trading range on Friday, following relatively unsurprising US GDP data. Now the bears are attempting to confirm a two-month triangle pattern. They need to keep the pair below a resistance at 1.0862 (weekly PP; 20-day SMA), in order to shift medium-term expectations strongly to the downside. The bulls, however, are hoping to receive momentum from a new monthly pivot point at 1.0841 and 55-day SMA at 1.0836, which are reinforced by July 2015 low at 1.0808. In the meantime, technical indicators on all time frames are currently pointing to the South.Daily chart
From the point of view of the 1H chart, the EUR/USD cross had a perfect bearish trade on Friday. A decline was only stopped by the July 2015 low. A rebound above 200-hour SMA at 1.0869 should reopen a January downtrend near 1.0950, followed by December-January uptrend at 1.0995.
Hourly chart
55% of SWFX traders keep a bearish view on the Euro
Meantime, OANDA market expectations with respect to EUR/USD have improved somewhat over the last 72 hours. Distribution between the bulls and bears is completely even this Monday morning, which is the third worst among all majors at OANDA. SAXO Bank clients, however, are still pessimistic in more than 63% of all cases.