- Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price have jumped (79% bullish / 21% bearish)
- The pair could climb in price, with the closest resistance at 119.38
- The downward movement is still possible, but should be limited by the weekly S1 and monthly PP at 116.91/75
- Upcoming events: US Unemployment Claims, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference
Concluding the FOMC's two-day meeting, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the US central bank plans to hike interest rates next year, but it would take a patient approach in deciding on a timing of the first rate hike, which would not take place any earlier than late April. Yellen's comments along with the FOMC statement indicated that the Fed was not inclined to start normalizing its monetary stance more quickly despite recent upbeat economic data, including stronger employment growth and falling oil prices. Still-elevated unemployment rate and below-target inflation provides the central bank with flexibility to take gradual approach to lifting rates. The FOMC statement also showed that the overwhelming majority of policy makers expect the Fed to raise the federal funds rate by 0.75-1.75 percentage points in 2015.
Meanwhile, Japan logged its 29th consecutive trade deficit in November despite a slight decline of imports due to the recent fall in crude oil prices. The unadjusted gap in trade widened to 891.9 billion in November from the October's revised 736.9 billion yen shortfall. The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit narrowed slightly to 925.0 billion yen from the revised 985.1 billion yen. Japan's exports rose for a third consecutive month in November from the previous year, but much more slowly than projected and despite a sharp plunge in the Japanese Yen as weak demand in Asia and Europe dampened trade. Exports surged 4.9%, largely on shipments of electronic components, optical equipment and machinery, whereas volume was still down 1.7%.
Japan's monetary policy meeting in the night to Friday
The US unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index of course are important data and they can impact the trading; therefore, they have to be watched. Nonetheless, the BOJ monetary policy statement and press conference is more important to our mind, as they are probably the biggest catalyst for the Japanese currency.
USD/JPY nears weekly PP at 119.38
At the first half of the year USD/JPY was trading almost completely flat, as it traded around the 102 level. However, at the second part of August the Greenback started to outperform the Japanese peer rather heavily. A few weeks ago the pair breached the 120 mark and for the time being it remains a target for the pair's bulls since the Greenback has slipped below it. Nonetheless, if traders' fail to breach this substantial level then it is likely to trade around 118/119 levels.Daily chart
The cross received a bullish impetus around the weekly S1 at 116.91 that let the pair to touch the 119 level. Currently, USD/JPY is fluctuating slighlty below the weekly PP at 119.38; although, if the pair keeps its pace then it will be breached. The target remains to be the psychological level at 120; however, the lack of bullishness in technical indicators is limiting the bullish potential.
Hourly chart
Open positions neutral, while pending orders positive
At the same time the amount of the buy orders has increased substantially - reaching 79%. It implies that, if USD/JPY rebounds, in the near-term it may be stopped by the weekly PP and possibly it could push the pair lower.
However, if the pair continue to retreat, most likely it will be stopped by the weekly S1 and monthly PP 116.91/75.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community expects Yen to appreciate towards 120
Likerty, one of the community members participating in the survey, anticipates the pair's moves to be determined by the major 118.70 level "118.70 is a major technical level derived from historical range, so comebacks from above could be possible. 122.50's is a pivotal level of it's upcoming range-deep bearish corrections may fallow."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on USD/JPY between Nov 11 and Dec 11 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 121.20 by the mid-March. However, the largest portion of participants, namely 15% of them, believe the exchange rate will gain either to 121.50/123.00 or 124.50/126.00 in sixty days. Only 25% expect the USD/JPY cross to slide below the current market value.