- Opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive (73% bullish / 27% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,188
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,183
- Upcoming events on April 24: Germany IFO Business Climate (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Mar), Eurogroup Meeting in Riga
Gold fell sharply through the important $1,200 level as considerably better than expected US housing data fuelled expectations the Fed would soon hike interest rates. The precious metal took a hit after data showed sales of previously owned homes surged to the highest level in 18 months in April, as more homes came to the market. Investors were also watching closely the unfolding of the Greek debt crisis. Uncertainty over the standstill, which could result in Greece exiting the Euro zone, could boost safe-haven bids for the yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a preliminary reading of China's manufacturing sector's performance showed a further decline in activity in April, which fell to the lowest level in 12 months, adding to signs Beijing's efforts to cushion a slowdown are yet to help the nation's factories. The Markit HSBC Flash PMI declined to 49.2 in April down from 49.6 a month earlier, with a reading below the crucial 50-mark threshold indicating a contraction of the sector's business activity.
Euro group to meet in Riga on Friday-Saturday
Tomorrow and on Saturday, the finance and economy ministers of all Euro zone countries will meet in Riga, Latvia to discuss current issues facing the single currency area. Topics on the agenda include Greek crisis, assessment of structural reforms in Spain and presentation of ECB's annual report on supervisory activities. Among major daily fundamentals, the US are publishing data on durable goods orders in March, with analysts estimating a rebound after weak statistics back in February.XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line, at that time located around 1,150. Towards the end of June the bullion is likely to develop in the direction of the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,260 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. However, the metal can also be stopped by the 200-day SMA around 1,220. The overall negative trend for Gold seems inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
The bullion has finally decided to show some decisive move on Wednesday. Influenced by general bearish trend since April 6, Gold plummeted sharply yesterday and fell as low as weekly S1 at 1,188. Consolidation below this important support should affirm the medium-term negative outlook, and the metal should set a new target level below 2013 low at 1,180. This idea is shared both by weekly and monthly indicators. However, upside risks remain in place, especially in case Gold rebounds back above 1,190.
Hourly chart
SWFX opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened positions stays at 67.38% (+3 day-on-day) at the moment, and Gold's sentiment there is currently the second most positive among all major currency pairs. Saxo Bank market participants, in turn, are also confident with respect to the precious metal, as there are 64% (+5%) of bullish positions registered by 5:30am GMT on April 23.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 23 and Apr 23 expect, on average, to see Gold trading just below 1,250 by the end of July. At the same time, 53% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 33% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250.