- Opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive (73% bullish / 27% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,207
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,196
- Upcoming events on April 14: Germany Wholesale Price Index (Mar), Euro zone Industrial Production (Feb), US Retail Sales (Mar), UK CPI (Mar)
Gold traded above $1,200 an ounce on Monday, while the main driver, which determines bullion's performance to a large extent, continues to be concern that the Fed is on the way to hike interest rates this year. Yet, there is a widening gap in views among the US central bank's policy makers, as some insist on lift-off in the federal funds rate already in June, while others believe the Fed should keep rates near zero until the second half of next year. Meanwhile, demand in China, the world's second biggest gold consumer, remained sluggish.
This divergence in opinions makes it difficult for Yellen to navigate the monetary policy in the world's number one economy. One of the sticklers for a rate hike this summer is Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, who said last week that there is still a strong case for the US central bank to begin raising interest rates in June, as the recent soft economic data will probably prove temporary.
UK inflation likely to stay at zero level
On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will publish the UK inflation data for March. The headline reading is estimated to remain fully unchanged at 0%, while on a monthly basis the consumer price index has probably gained 0.3%. Along with that, important fundamental statistics on April 14 will include US retail sales for March and Euro zone's manufacturing production for February.XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
Despite posting a considerable jump in price on Friday, Gold still managed to respect two closest resistance and support levels and denied developing beyond any of them. The bullion returned back above 1,200 and was capped by a supply zone around 1,210 (100, 55-day SMA). Moreover, this week this resistance area is also reinforced by the weekly PP. On Monday, a correction to the south has a good chance to take place, even though daily technical studies assume the precious metal will continue developing upwards.
Hourly chart
SWFX opened positions are at highest level in three weeks
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened positions stays at 61.71% at the moment, and Gold's sentiment there is currently the fifth most positive among all major currency pairs there. Saxo Bank market participants, in turn, are also confident with respect to the precious metal, as there are 59% of bullish positions registered by 5:30am GMT on April 13.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 13 and Apr 13 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,250 by the end of July. At the same time, 58% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 30% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250.