- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (69% bullish / 31% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,209
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,196
- Upcoming events on April 13: France Current Account (Jan), Italy Industrial Production (Mar), China Trade Balance (Mar)
Gold, in turn, remained below $1,200 an ounce on Friday and was set to halt its three-week rally due to renewed expectations for an interest rate hike in the US despite recent poor economic data. In addition to that, demand from India and China, the world's top two gold buyers, has been weak so far this year, with Beijing's anti-corruption drive lowering Chinese appetite. Gold is predicted to slide to the lowest level in five years of $1,100 this year, before a rebound in 2016 driven by Asian demand.
Following last week's disappointing non-farm payrolls data, the latest report on weekly jobless claims confirmed signs of deterioration in the US labour market. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 4 rose to 281,000, according to the Labour Department, against economists' expectations for a rise to 285,000.
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
As expected, the yellow metal slipped for a third day in a row and approached the support zone just below 1,200. However, XAU/USD is still now assessing strength of weekly PP and 20-day SMA. If these technical levels succeed in keeping the bullion above them, it may try returning back towards the 55-day SMA at 1,209. On the other hand, in case bears pierce through, they will target the next demand at 1,183 (monthly PP, 2013 low). Meanwhile, technical indicators are favouring the first scenario at the moment.
Hourly chart
SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened positions stays at 61.88% at the moment, and Gold's sentiment there is currently the sixth most positive among all major currency pairs. Saxo Bank market participants, in turn, are also confident with respect to the precious metal, as there are 61% of bullish positions registered by 5:30 GMT on April 10.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 10 and Apr 10 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,250 by the end of July. At the same time, 54% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 32% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250.