- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (64% bullish / 36% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,199
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,183
- Upcoming events on April 2: US Unemployment Claims (Mar 27), Trade Balance (Feb) and Factory Orders (Feb), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, Australia Trade Balance (Feb), UK Construction PMI (Mar), Canada Trade Balance (Feb)
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Bullion kicked off April by rising on Wednesday but remained below $1,190 an ounce as the Dollar fell, while expectations the Fed heads towards raising interest rates this year limited gold's gains. Investors are awaiting US jobs data on Friday, with stronger than expected data indicating the US central bank's readiness to lift rates sooner than later. Gold has lost 3% since reaching a three-week high last week above $1,200 an ounce after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted a rate hike could be likely later this year.
At the same time, consumer confidence in the US rose more than expected in March. The index, calculated by the Conference Board, advanced to 97 points this month, up from 96.4 in February. Economists, from their side, estimated a jump up to 96.6 points.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
US, Australia and Canada to announce trade balance data on April 2
Tomorrow, three countries-G20 members are getting ready to publish statistics on their international trade performance in February. While the United States and Canada are expecting their trade shortfalls to narrow slightly, Australia is forecasted to show a considerable deterioration, down from $980 million in January to $1.3 billion in February. Apart from that, Markit will release the construction PMI indicator for the UK in March, where a marginal downward change is currently estimated by analysts.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
On Wednesday morning, XAU/USD is receiving reliable support from April's new monthly pivot point, which is located at 1,183. Moreover, this level is reinforced by another demand area at 1,180 (2003 low; weekly S1). As a result, Gold is currently rebounding after a failure to violate those supports yesterday. Daily technical indicators continue sending green signals, meaning that the yellow metal may gain value in the short-term. The closest resistance is placed as far as 1,199, thus giving additional optimism for the bullish scenario.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened trades stays at 61.78% at the moment, a small decrease from Tuesday. Alongside, Gold's sentiment is currently the fourth most positive among major currency pairs at OANDA. In addition, SaxoGroup market participants are also positive with respect to the yellow metal, as there are 65% of bullish positions registered by 6:00 GMT on April 1.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 1 and Apr 1 expect, on average, to see Gold trading at 1,200 by the end of June. At the same time, 52% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 31% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
© Dukascopy Bank SA