- Opened positions for Gold remain strongly positive (72% bullish / 28% bearish)
- It is possible that Gold will grow in price further, with the closest resistance for it located at 1,233
- At the same time, the probability of a downside movement exists as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1,211
- Upcoming events on January 15: Eurozone Trade Balance, US Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann Speech, Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, Japan Foreign Bond Investment and Tertiary Industry Index
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Still, Gold traded below the 12-week high on Wednesday amid sharp sell-offs in oil and copper. On top of that, bullion was affected by a stronger US Dollar, which hit a nine-year high versus the Euro as extra stimulus measures from the European Central Bank seem imminent. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged for the second-consecutive day at 707.82 tons on Tuesday.
The number of job vacancies in the US soared to the highest level in almost 14 years in November, a sign that rapid hiring that made 2014 the best year of job gains in 15 years is showing no signs of slowing down. The Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job openings surged 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted level of 4.97 million, the highest since January 2001. That suggests businesses are determined to continue adding staff as they believe that strong economic growth will bolster demand for their goods and services.
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Australian employment data to influence Gold on Thursday
As usually, potential Gold drivers every day combine upcoming statistical indicators from all around the world, as their negative changes are often hedged in terms of bullion's purchases and positive data contributes to sell-offs of the metal. Tomorrow, there are important numbers to be announced in Australia, both connected with the labour market. Moreover, Japan is due to release data on foreign bond investment for the week ended January 9. The same time period will be applicable for US jobless claims as they are likely to reach 299,000.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD keeps medium-term bullish momentum
The XAU/USD cross has breached the most important resistance line, represented by the long-term downtrend at $1,218 and started to develop above this line again on January 9. At the moment it is hard to say whether Gold is able to return back below this level. If the bullion consolidates above it, then we may see metal's further increase in the medium-term, with the goal at 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1,260. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the yellow metal tends to remain negative, mostly reflecting strength of US fundamental factors. Therefore, in course of first months of 2015 Gold is still suggested to lose value, which may follow the present rebound soon.Daily chart
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Following a strong jump above the weekly R1 to hit $1,244, Gold lost the vast part of its yesterday's gains to fall even below the monthly R1 and close the day at $1,234. At the moment the price of the metal is bounded between the mentioned resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement which are limiting XAU/USD's ability to develop in either direction. Nevertheless, judging from technical indicators, a short-term bullish action is still possible, before Gold will finally start losing value amid broad strength of US dollar.
Hourly chart
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Bullish majority on Gold stays above 70%
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Dec 14 and Jan 14 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,220 by the end of April. At the same time, 42% of them believe the bullion will be above 1,250 in three months, while 25% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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