- Portion of orders to acquire the Greenback contracted to 39%
- Market sentiment remains strongly bullish, as 60% of positions are long
- 29% of traders see USD/JPY above 124.5 by end of June
- Nearest significant resistance is represented by the weekly PP and 20-day SMA around 120.30, while closest support is 55-day SMA and weekly S1 at 119.05
- Upcoming events: US Existing Home Sales, US FOMC Member Fischer Speech
For a second consecutive week less than 300,000 people are applying for unemployment benefits in the United States. According to Department for Labour data, in total 291,000 Americans filed for jobless insurance for the week ended March 13. The indicator was released slightly better than predicted at 295,000 but marginally worse than during the preceding one-week period. Alongside, last week was the one when US government is surveying employers on payrolls, meaning that the world's largest economy may register a further strong increase in employment for the previous and current months. Jobless claims are considered to be one of the most important indicators of labour market's health, which is a benchmark for the Federal Reserve to determine its monetary policy stance. Earlier on Wednesday, the Fed announced a slower than previously estimated pace of rate's hike, but the first increase may take place as soon as June.
In the meantime, US current account deficit retreated substantially in the fourth quarter of the year 2014, mainly due to decrease in companies' investment earnings from their foreign branches. The negative gap surged 14.7% to reach $113.5 billion during three months ended December 31. It implies the largest deficit in more than two years, and is significantly higher than $98.9 billion registered in July-September quarter of the previous year.
Simon Smith, head of research FxPro, is sceptical with respect to the ability of the BoJ to boost growth and inflation. According to Simon, "the effectiveness of it [QE] diminishes the more you do, it was seen with the Fed as well." This leads to a conclusion that "the onus is still lying very much with the government; for them to push through on what they promised to do."US Existing Home Sales to increase
Today there are no fundamental data releases on Japan; however, the US Existing Home Sales are likely to have a positive impact on the Greenback, as the figures are expected to improve. Later in the evening, a FOMC Member Fischer's Speech will take place, which too can define derection of the pair.
Simon Smith also does not think that the BoJ is likely to implement more stimulus before year's end. He said that the "effectiveness of it is going to be weak, the problems it is going to cause can often outweigh what it resolves". Hence, Simon suggests the onus is again going to fall on the government to push some of the structural forms.
USD/JPY tumbled unexpectedly
US Dollar's behaviour surprised last Friday, as the Buck plunged versus the Yen. USD/JPY tested the weekly S2, which prevented a larger decline. Ultimately, the Greenback lost 72 pips, as it settled at 120.02. However, a rebound is expected to take place today, even though the technical studies are showing mixed signals. The rally is likely to encounter an obstacle around 120.30, represented by the weekly PP and 20-day SMA.
Daily chart
Even though USD/JPY managed to cross the resistance trend-line, the pair did not overstay its welcome. After some serious fluctuations the Greenback slid on Friday and is close to forming a double bottom. Should the pattern continue, the US Dollar will then be highly likely to regain the bullish momentum.
Hourly chart
Market sentiment remains bullish
Market sentiment remains strongly bullish, as 60% of positions are long. Nevertheless, the portion of orders to acquire the Greenback contracted, as only 39% are to benefit from the Dollar's appreciation.
OANDA traders' sentiment improved, as the share of longs increased from 55 to 62%. The SAXO Group market participants also retain a strong bullish outlook towards the Greenback, as longs account for 67% of the market.