USD/JPY continues to decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The decline of the USD/JPY has continued, as on Wednesday morning the rate already passed the weekly S3 simple pivot point at 105.25.

Next target for the rate's decline was the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 105.03 and the monthly pivot point at 104.99. In addition, psychological support could be provided by the round 105.00 exchange rate level.

Economic Calendar



This week, on Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data sets are set to be published. Since April, the USD/JPY has moved from 6.1 to 13.6 pips on the announcement.

Wednesday's events are set to end with the most notable event of them all - the Federal Open Markets Committee announcements and the US Federal Reserve Rate Announcement. The USD/JPY moved from 17.6 to 44.6 pips on the announcements that occurred since March.

Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT, the US weekly Unemployment Claims could cause a move. However, despite all pairs moving during the publication, the USD/JPY has remained almost flat.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

As mentioned above, the rate was heading to the 105.00 zone, where it would meet with a support cluster.

If the given support levels hold, the rate could retrace back up tot eh 105.25 level, where the weekly S3 simple pivot point would provide resistance.

On the other hand, the rate is heavily oversold and could trade sideways above the 105.00 level until the hourly simple moving averages catch up to the pair.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the pair has bounced off the resistance of the 55-day simple moving average.

In the meantime, it could be spotted on the chart that the 105.10 level stopped the pair's decline in late August. This level might once again provide support.

Daily chart




Short sentiment decreases

On Monday, traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange were bearish, as 58% of all open position volume was in short positions.

On Tuesday, the sentiment slightly changed, as 62% of volume was short. 

It can be assumed that some traders took profits from the recent decline.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were 79% to buy.

These orders could be close by stop losses of short positions and the buy to open long position orders of traders that expect a retracement back up.

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