- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 51% to buy
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0540
- Upcoming Events: EU Minimum Bid Rate; ECB Press Conference, US Unemployment Claims; US Import Prices
The US private sector created more than expected jobs last month, surprising markets. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday showed companies added 298,000 new jobs to the economy in February, while analysts expected a gain of 184,000 jobs. The report also showed that January's initially reported gain of 246,000 jobs was revised up to 261,000. Wednesday's stronger than-expected ADP figures provided support to the US Dollar on hopes that Friday's NFP would surprise on the upside. After the release, the EUR/USD pair fell to 102.00, while the US Dollar Index advanced to 101.80.
Markets expect Friday's NFP data to show a rise of 185,000 for February, compared to the preceding month's gain of 227,000. If the actual data comes in higher than economists' estimates, it would provide additional support for Fed officials to raise rates at their meeting next week. According to market consensus, the unemployment rate slowed down to 4.7% in February from the previous month's 4.8%. Other data release on Wednesday showed US crude oil inventories rose 8.2 million in the week ended March 3, compared to the prior week's gain of 1.5 million barrels, while market analysts anticipated a climb of 1.1 million barrels during the reported week.
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Upcoming events: EU central banking and minor US data
For the EUR/USD traders the most important events during Thursday's trading session will be associated with monetary policy. At 12:45 GMT the ECB Minimum Bid Rate will be published, and it is expected to remain at zero percent. Later in the day, at 13:30 GMT the ECB Press Conference will take place. In the meantime, the US Unemployment Claims and US Import Prices will be published on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD passes support level near 1.0530 mark
Daily Chart: On Thursday morning the common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate passed another notable level of support. The currency pair had dropped below the weekly S1, which is located at 1.0533 level and stopped the pair's fall during Wednesday's trading session. It is likely that the rate will fall to the lower Bollinger band, which was located at 1.0508 on Thursday morning. However, below that the closest cluster of support begins at 1.0446, where the weekly S2 is located at.Daily chart
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Hourly chart: On the hourly chart for the pair it can be seen that the rate is still in the descending channel pattern. In the meantime, the currency exchange rate has left all of the simple moving averages above it, which might soon begin to provide additional strength to the hourly chart's descending channel's upper trend line. In addition, the decline of the rate is only slowed down by the lower Bollinger band. However, there can be seen fluctuations caused by fundamental data releases. Although, they remain in the borders of the channel.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders not changing their positions
For the fourth consecutive trading session SWFX traders remain neutral bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long. In addition, trader set up orders are identical, as 51% of orders are set to buy the Euro.
OANDA traders have become bullish, as 54.39% of trader open positions are long on Thursday, compared to 52.84% positions previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients have a similar tendency, as 51.54% of open positions are long, compared to 50.52% positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 9 and March 9 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the start of April. In general, 55% of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.06 in ninety days, and 14% see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 19% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA