- SWFX traders are 54% bullish
- 61% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,257.62 on Monday
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders, US Durable Goods Orders, US Pending Home Sales, FOMC Member's Kaplan's Speech
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased slightly more than expected last week, though the four week average dropped 4,000 to 241,000, weakest level since 1973, official figures revealed on Thursday. Last week's results were driven by growing economy and tight labor market, which is likely to prompt companies to retain experienced workers, supporting wage growth. According to the US Department of Labor, national jobless claims rose 6,000 to 244,000 during the week ended February 17 from the preceding week's upwardly revised 238,000. Meanwhile, economists anticipated an acceleration to 242,000 during the reported period. Filings have been holding below 300,000 for 103 straight weeks, showing healthy signs of the US job market.
In the meantime, continuing claims fell 17,000 to 2.06 million during the week ended February 11, while their four-week moving average dropped 10,750. Overall, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase interest rates fairly soon, with labor market and inflation data set to reveal better performance. The last time the Fed raised its benchmark overnight rate was in December last year, when the rate was increased from 0.5% to 0.75%.
Upcoming events: Several important data releases in US
The fundamental events in the US today consist of several important data releases and a speech by FOMC member Kaplan at 16:00 GMT that might hint at new plans for changes in the US monetary policy. Today, at 13:30 GMT, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods orders, which will reveal the amount of orders for the products with life expectancy higher than 3 years, will be released. Another data release scheduled for 15:00 GMT, US Pending Home Sales, might affect the financial markets. From these data releases, the US Durable Goods data release is scheduled to be covered by the Dukascopy research team on the live webinar.
Gold meets resistance at 1,260 mark
Daily chart: During the last trading session the yellow metal stopped the jump, which was the result of a breakout out of a triangle pattern. The surge stopped at the 1,260 level, where the 200-day SMA was and still is located at. As a result with a new week a decline has begun, and the bullion's price is set to decline to the 1,248.96 level, where the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. In addition, the Fibo is also supported by the newly calculated weekly PP, which is located at the 1,247.55 level.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly supports the forecast of the daily chart analysis, showing that the yellow metal has begun a sharp decline. The price of the bullion has already passed the support level consisting of 20-hour SMA at 1255.72 and continues its slope down. Downward direction of 20-hour SMA and lower Bollinger Band show that the price of the Gold is bound to fall. Consequently, it is likely that the price of the bullion will continue to fall until it reaches 50.00% Fibo at 1,248.96 level. However, the 55-hour SMA located at 1250.40 might slow down its movement, but most likely only temporarily.
Hourly chart
Traders still bullish on bullion
OANDA Gold traders continue to diminish their bullish outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions have fallen to 56.57%, compared to 59.74% on Friday. In the meantime, traders of SAXO bank are now neutral bearish on the yellow metal, as 50.73% of open positions are bearish.