- SWFX traders are keeping their open positions steady in the run up to Christmas (55% short/45% long)
- Prices are underpinned by the 20-day SMA; initial bullish goal is the weekly R1 at 1,080
- Daily technical indicators remain uncertain with respect to gold
- No major economic events are due in the next 24 hours
However, gold inched up slightly on Thursday in a thin pre-holiday trading session, following two days of losses. Bullion found some support in the energy markets, as oil surged more than 3% on Wednesday after a plunge to multi-year lows earlier this week. Gold is positively correlated to oil as bullion is considered as a hedge against oil-driven inflation. So far this year the yellow metal has lost 9%, a third year of losses, due to expectations the Fed would hike interest rates, which it did earlier this month.
Canada's economic growth was unexpectedly flat in October after shrinking a month earlier, due to drop in manufacturing, utilities and retail sales, Statistics Canada reported. Manufacturing production slid 0.3%. The declines offset a 0.8% increase in mining and oil and gas extraction in October. Economic output was little changed at an annualized C$1.64 trillion compared with September, when the economy shrank 0.5%, the most since March 2009, whereas economists had predicted a 0.2% gain in October. Economists expect growth to slow to 1.2% this year from 2.5% in 2014. The Canadian economy will have to wait for at least two years before growth returns to where it was before the plunge in oil prices. The nation's economy is seen growing 1.8% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017. Investors are increasing bets Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will cut the 0.5% interest rate as oil prices hit new lows and growth in many other industries fails to take up the slack. Furthermore, Canada's retail sales rose a modest 0.1% in October, following an upwardly revised decline of 0.4% in September. The October data was a disappointment as economist had anticipated a 0.4% growth.
US factory orders for long-lasting goods including autos, airplanes and electronics were flat in November, as a strong Dollar and struggling global economy weigh on US manufacturers. The Greenback has gained almost 20% against the currencies of the US main trading partners over the last 18 months. According to the Commerce Department, non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4% last month. Core capital goods orders climbed by a revised 0.6% in October. They were previously reported to have increased 1.3%. New orders in the category were down 3.6% through the first 11 months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier. Durable goods orders have plunged 3.7% year-to-date. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the three months through September, the Commerce Department said earlier in the week, driven by a 9.9% growth rate for fixed non-residential investment in equipment. Overall growth appears fairly steady as 2015 comes to an end. Macroeconomic Advisers expected US GDP to rise at a 1.9% pace in the fourth quarter.
Upcoming fundamentals: No major economic events are due in the next 24 hours
While European and US trading is estimated to be subdued on Thursday, the Asian region will be more active in course of the next several days. At 23:30 GMT we expect to get the numbers from Japan where inflation statistics will be released. The core national consumer price index has probably picked up from -0.1% to zero in November of this year.
Gold is rejected by July low, awaits recovery
The yellow metal made no confident attempts to violate the July low and 20-day SMA on Wednesday. However, eventually it managed to close under the latter line, but today we expect the bullion's bounce back. All in all, the session is highly likely to be tranquil in terms of volatility, given that trading volumes are cooling down before the Christmas break. Moreover, the sideways trend is forecasted by daily technical indicators for the moment. Thus, the key anchor for gold remains the 20-day SMA at 1,071.Daily chart
In the one-hour chart, the outlook for gold is moderately bullish at the moment. However, it is not guaranteed that the price will be able to stay above the 200-hour SMA (1,067), which was penetrated by the bulls on Monday. The uncertainty is reinforced by the fact that gold has largely ignored the moving average since the beginning of this month.
Hourly chart
Sentiment unchanged after silent Wednesday session
Meanwhile, the share of OANDA bullish transactions advanced slightly more from 71% to 72% yesterday. An improvement was also in place for the SAXO Bank sentiment toward the precious metal where an increase of more than one percentage point pushed the long portion up to 70.43%.