This pair is hard to predict technically, but here is my forecast for the 1st of July. In weekly chart I see triangle formation. This formation began in 2009 (hooray we have 4 year anniversary!!! ) and looks like this range is narrowing to apex, but its so far away from today that i cant even say exactly when and if it will happen. Anyway, this contest is for July price so we will look no further than that.
Ok. lets look at weekly chart:
At first sight we had one triangle that is completed with break to downside (look at inside triangle with dotted lower line), from chart we could say that this price action could be a great scenario for breakout and retest. This in my opinion is more likely than Mammoth in my yard, but we never know exactly. Now, if you agree with me on that, lets see whats going on on daily time frame below.
In January we had a peak or if we could say third rejection to the upside and who was in longs was in bad situation, anyway, based on my presumptions and the help of Fibonacci tools i predict, that at first we will reach 61,8 level of this downtrend we had, and at that moment we will touch 200 simple moving average on weekly tf, consolidation area (look at rectangle on daily tf) and all this together will act as huge resistance for further up move. As i written before, cable is driven more fundamentally, and guess what we have on 1st of July? We will have the new governor of BoE at that date. Will he implement some changes into CB policy, i don't know, but i assume that a lot off market participants will be willing to see some changes. Regarding all this information and information listed above i conclude my number to 1.5318.
So summarizing here is my steps:
1. we reach 61.8 fib level to get better price for shorts.
2. break trend line of correction.
3. reach 79 fib level of last rise retracement.
4. will have nice W shape pattern for upside? but this is for my next article
Thank you for voting and your comments in advance, don't be very critical because this is my first article ever Have a good trading week and month!