EUR/USD has not gone anywhere for quite some time. Obviously we are in a corrective pattern, which is a triangle. No matter how you are going to label this chart, the next move is clear. Let’s look at intraday chart first.
In 1h chart of EUR/USD there is a clear divergence between tops. As you may know, MACD is copping the price and react to it relative to prior price data. That is not mean the price will go down because there is divergence, because price also could go sideways and we can see that price already trading in a box range. If you go to higher time frames (like daily or 4h) you can also see the divergence on those time frames. So if someone need at least 3 reasons for deciding on a position we can count this as 1st sign.
We also in corrective pattern of Elliott Waves. Regardless of your labeling we can agree on triangle pattern. If we consider this labeling as a valid count, then we should look for two more waves to end this pattern. The next wave is D and we have our 2nd reason to short this pair.
If you look at recent candlesticks you can see all of them has long shadows near the resistance zone and maybe you can find couple of candlesticks pattern. This could be our 3rd reason for getting short EUR/USD.
Guessing where price would exactly be on the specific time is beyond my powers. I used Fib to estimate the time. I can guess that price will be around 1.1085 after wave D of triangle ends and wave E would be in process.
Translate to English Show original