This is one of those pictures that's worth a thousand words. The chart below shows mutiple studies confirming my view that the EUR/SEK will stay near its long-term average. First we have the 200 month moving average in blue. It's currently at 9.277, only 5 percent away from the current market price. This means that the current price is just a few days worth of trading away from its average during the past 16 years.



If that doesn't show you the state of this currency pair, there's more! Notice that we're now trading right back in the same congestion area as before 2008. The crisis led to some distorted valuations for a while and we saw some wild swings up/down but soon the EUR/SEK was back to its mean reverting nature and settled near its long-term average. The third point is the Fibonacci retracement, measured from the 2008 high to the lows in 2012. We're now trading close to the 50% retracement, another sign of the range-bound trading in this pair.




Finally on the second chart below we're seeing that mean reversion is the name of the game on the lower time-frames as well. Because all is pointing to prices staying range-bound, betting on prices staying near the current quote of 9.7704 seems like a logical choice.
翻译为 英语 显示原始