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Calmer Days for the Singapore Dollar

It's been an unusually wild month for the USD/SGD. The US dollar losses pushed the from 1.4058 to 1.3477. On the chart below we can see this steady decline we've been having this month.
But let's zoom out a bit. On the weekly chart below we can see that the latest decline has only partially erased the Dollar gains. In fact if we draw a Fibonacci retracement from the last major swing low to the last major swing high, we get a 50% value around 1.3401. It's not a coincidence that today the pair bou…
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EUR/GBP Hits Old Resistance Area

The EUR/GBP could be forming a top. After reaching a high of 0.7927 the pair was rejected down to 0.7652. Then we rallied again, hit a new high at 0.7946 only to get rejected a second time. Today we rallied to 0.7944 and predictably, we fell again. The chart below shows these unsuccessful pushes.
I don't think the pair will manage to break higher. Even if we look at the longer-term weekly chart, we can see that the 0.7800 - 0.8000 area was where prices spent the entire second half of 2014. Histo…
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USD/CAD to Rally Higher

The Canadian Dollar has been one of the big winners from the rally in oil prices this year. The USD/CAD saw most of the post-Fed December gains evaporate and is currently trading at 1.2986, over 1600 pips below the January highs at 1.4688.
Notice the Stochastic indicator on the daily chart below. It has been in oversold territory for over one month now since late February. But things may be changing, notice how the indy is finally turning back higher above the 20 level, signalling a potential r…
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More of the Same for the EUR/SEK

The EUR/SEK has been stuck trading between 9.20 and 9.30 since March 14th. Prices have entered a prolonged consolidation period with no end in sight, as you can see on the daily chart below.
But the picture doesn't look any better on the higher timeframes. This year the EUR/SEK moved between 9.14 and 9.61, a range of only 5 percent. If we go back further by 1 year, that range only expands to a 9.05 low and a 9.68 high. This is a very small yearly range of 6.8 percent.
The lack of trend on both s…
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EUR/PLN Returning to the Mean

The crisis after the Polish election threatened to rock the stability seen in the pair for the past few years. The EUR/PLN rallied from a low of 4.21 to a high of 4.51 in less then one month. But all this changed in the past few weeks.. The pair has fallen from a high of 4.51 to a low of 4.2357 yesterday. The pair is now heavily oversold as can be seen on he Stochastic indicator below.
But I'm not betting on a reversal in this pair. Why? Let's check out a longer chart. On the weekly chart below …
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EUR/JPY to Stay Put

The EUR/JPY will stay put around current prices. Let's see why I think this. On the chart below we can see that we are currently trading around 128 Yen for 1 Euro. This is close to the 50% level for this year's range (high 132.29 and low 122.06). The yearly range has been fairly large so far at close to 8 percent. But we can deduce from how close we are to the 50% mark, prices swing around but ultimately come back around to this central area.
Another reason I'm betting on prices continuing to tr…
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EURo to Breakout Higher

The Euro had a bumpy ride these past few months. First it rallied to 1.1375, then fell to 1.0825. Then rallied back up to 1.1341 before retracing to 1.1143. We are currently back up to 1.1345. This zig-zag movement is visible on the chart below.
But if we zoom in on a larger time-frame, the picture is a bit more clear. Here we can see that the pair has been bumping on this fairly large resistance area from around 1.13 -1.15 Euros per Dollar. This constant pressure should eventually break this r…
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EUR/TRY to Continue Range-bound Trading

EUR/TRY has been little changed in the past few weeks. Notice the tight range during the most of this month. With a high at 3.2155 and a low at 3.1990, the total range has been just under 1.6 percent.
Let's take a longer view as well. On the weekly chart below we can see that the pair has been stuck in a large wedge. This pattern is a consolidation pattern plus it gets narrower with time. This means that the oscillations in the price will decrease going forward.
Since I'm betting on no major cha…
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Japanese Yen to Stay in Range

After a wild first two months of the year, the Japanese Yen has a calmer session in March. The pair closed lower by only 12 pips, forming a doji pattern on the monthly chart. This pattern signals indecision in the market. The market usually moves in a range about 70% of the time and only trends the other 30%.
An added problem for any trends is the active intervention by the Japanese ministry of Finance. Look at the 4h chart below. Notice the the pair keeps getting bought around 111 dollars for 1…
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Large Gains for the Pound

The Pound has been heavily beat up for the past 9 months, falling over 2,000 from the 1.5928 high. On the weekly chart below we can see this massacre unfolding in slow motion. But there are signs we're nearing a bottom here. Notice that the Stochastic turned from below the oversold 20 area and is now heading higher, a bullish sign.
In addition, as we can see on the daily chart below, it appears that the pair is bottoming out. The GBP/USD is slowly forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. T…
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