Activity

  
Avatar

Stabilization with an Upward Bias for the Euro

The past month has been hectic for the EUR/USD. We’ve seen prices rally over 700 pips to a high of 1.1713, only to fall back down to 1.1150 in the next five days. One Euro is currently selling for 1.1232 U.S. Dollars, off by almost 500 pips from the highs.
But despite the blowout top, the trend is up, as indicated by a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. I expect to see some stabilization in the Euro but with an upward bias. I place my target at 1.1415 because this is just below a series …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

Cable to Break to the Downside?

Cable looks like it’s setting up for a break downward. The pair is no longer in an uptrend. The trendline supporting the latest rally has been broken in July. We’re also no longer seeing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
During July and August we’ve been in somewhat of a holding pattern. The GBP/USD bounced between 1.53 and 1.58. This is a relatively tight range, especially when compared to the other majors like the EUR/USD and USD/JPY, both of which saw over 700 pips swings during th…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

USD/DKK to Stay Put

The USD/DKK had a wild ride in August. First we fell by 6 percent, then rallied by 4.5%. The chart below demonstrates the madness that was the month of August. But in trading it’s easy to miss the forest for the trees.
Let’s zoom in a bit. The chart below shows the USD/DKK for this year. Notice that since January 20th or so we’ve basically stayed around the current price of 6.65 Euros for one Danish Krone. Sure we moved above this level by a large margin, as well as below it. But ultimately the…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

Singapore Dollar to Continue Range-bound Trading

The Singapore Dollar is set to continue its range-bound trading pattern. For the past 4 weeks, this pair has moved in a tight range between 1.4160 and 1.3888. I suspect that this range will continue into September.
Reason number one is that the resistance near 1.41, which can be traced all the way back to 2011, has put a lid on prices. It has stopped the upward moving trend. This brings us to the second reason. Uptrends rarely switch into downtrends right away without some consolidation in betwe…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EUR/GBP Likely Set the Low for the Year

The EUR/GBP is having a possible turning year. The pair opened 2015 at 0.7815, fell to a low of 0.6937, then rallied about 400 pips to the current price of 0.7309. The EUR/GBP has been in a secular bear trend for the past two-and-half years. But the current bounce at 0.7000 is different. As we can see on the chart below, the two bounces near this round figure are the largest bounce in pips terms during the past 3 years. All other retracement fizzled out after 200-300 pips.
This leads me to think…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

Swissy Momentum Higher to Continue

The momentum higher in the Swissy is set to continue. The pair has rallied over 400 pips from a low of 0.9257 just eight days ago. A body in motion tends to stay in motion.
CHART 1
But I don't think we'll see large gains in the USD/CHF. For one, we are already up by 400 pips from the lows, this is a major move for this pair. And two, we are getting close to some previous resistance levels at 0.9726 and 0.9741. These resistance levels should put a lid on prices, at least temporarily. Because of t…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

Repeated Failures to Rally in USD/JPY

We’ve seen several repeated failures to see a rally in the USD/JPY for 2015. While most of them resulted in new highs for the year, the latest attempt fizzled out at 125.27, far below the 125.84 high seen back in early June. This spells trouble for USD/JPY bulls.
CHART 1
But what about the downside? The most recent attempt to breakout lower was stopped by the ascending trendline near 116. That trendline has now moved up to 116.15. To be fair, the range between 116 and 125 is fairly large. But I…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original