Technical tools: simple moving averages (20, 55 and 100), relative strength index and Bollinger bands.

The following daily chart shows the USD/JPY exchange rate surging between June 15, 2017 and July 10, 2017. After that period, the exchange rate reversed the previous mentioned trend and moved lower.


The 20-day SMA (112.75) is above the 55-day SMA (111.90) and the latter SMA is above the 100-day SMA (111.72).

Daily SMAs positioning offers a full conditional signal to expect further bullish developments in the weeks and month ahead. Though, it must be considered that the 20-day SMA crossed up the 55-day SMA on July 10, 2017 and the move must be sustained and consolidated for forward guidance.

The RSI is ticking at 40.7 offering a neutral stance. Nonetheless, it seems to be moving south and further stretch on the aforementioned direction seems likely in the near-term.

The exchange rate is squeezed between the medium (20-day SMA) Bollinger band (112.75) and the lower Bollinger band (111.26).

The following daily chart presents Fibonacci retracements from the high on December 15, 2016 till the low on April 17, 2017.


The chart also represents an ascending trend line and a descending trend line.

I’m expecting the exchange rate respecting the boundary imposed by the represented ascending and descending trend lines and more likely confined by the ascending trend line while it consolidates its position near the rationale level reinforced by the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at the end of the forecast period.
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