Monthly chart:

In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what appears to be continuation of the longer term downtrend. Support is now seen at 0.70 level and near 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868.




Weekly chart:

The pair traded in 0.7175 - 0.7600 range in February and March. It tested both sides of the range on a couple of occasions. In April, the pair broke higher and traded up to the previous range mid-point near 0.7750. It was rejected from there and the pair fell in the last five out of six weeks. Last week's decline was the greatest as the pair broke February low and closed well below that.




Daily chart:

May was the weakest month for the pair since January as the pair lost almost five cents. Rally in response to the RBNZ Financial Stability Report, released on May 12th, proved to be just a good selling opportunity as the pair turned quickly after retesting 50 day SMA from below. If we'll get a breakout pullback, broken 0.7175 level shall act as a decent resistance, while 20 day SMA may be used as an entry level for shorts on downtrend pullbacks.




Prediction:

RBNZ switched to conditional dovish stance in April. If they really want Kiwi to depreciate, they have good opportunity in the current enivronment. Probability of rate cut(s) increased and most of the market participants are now looking for at least one rate cut by the end of the year. On the 1st of July, 2015, at 12:00 GMT, I'm expecting the pair at 0.6575.
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