Monthly chart:

The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of its post-SNB losses and is holding well above both 20 and 50 month SMA. I'd say 50 month SMA is the line in sand. If the pair holds above it, that's bullish. Otherwise bearish.




Weekly chart:

After less hawkish than expected (almost dovish) FOMC meeting on March 18th, market seized opportunity and cleared late longs, pulling back to 0.95. Attempt to rally from there was rejected and the pair fell further, to almost 0.90. Broader range is now 0.9000 - 1.0300. 100 and 200 week SMA are providing initial support while the monthly descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 highs) and then the parity level shall offer decent resistance, should the pair continue to rally.




Daily chart:

200 day SMA was holding the pair during early March and throughout most of April. On April 29th, the level finally gave way and the pair traded down to 0.9072. After a quick bounce, the low was successfully retested and the pair carved out a double bottom. The pattern breakout projects towards 0.9650, but the 200 day SMA, which currently stands above 0.95 level, will need to be regained first. On the downside, 20 day SMA shall offer initial support.




Prediction:

After both shorts and longs were flushed out in the aftermath of the SNB debacle, the pair appears to be returning to trading fundamentals. Shorter-term technical picture is slightly bullish at the moment, while fundamentals are neutral due to the weaker data stream from the US, but the data is improving and I expect that to continue. On the 1st of July, 2015, at 12:00 GMT, the pair shall be trading at 0.9625.
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