Although it's particularly challenging to predict the pair's long-term movements, we believe there's a good chance the pair has seen its lows and will oscillate between 1.07 and 1.13 with 1.05 and 1.15 as the extremes. Although, the FED is not expected by the markets to go with an increase rate in March, data for both employment and inflation (according to the FED's projections anyway) are looking good so we think there's a higher chance for a big positive movement for the dollar coming in this week.

Based on the monthly chart as long as the pair stays below 1.1240, the 50% fibo retracement, then it's a BEARISH sentiment for the EURO. We'll rely on the weekly chart for our prediction. The pair may try for 1.15 or / and for the previous low at around 1.08. A bounce and lots of BUYING & SELLING at the key RANGE points as mentioned above could see the pair at 1.0915 after the end of the two month period.

An actual rate hike could probably generate a 100 or 200 pip move, so with the pair currently close to 1.11 after the DRAGHI speech last week, there's probably no need to lower our prediction to account for that possibility.

Monthly chart

Weekly Chart
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