On the Daily chart we see that the pair is on an upward channel. However, it fell below the 50% Fibo level (below 1.07) at the end of March. Next major support is at 1.06 and if it breaks it then even 1.038 could be in sight.

We could expect a move at 1.06 and below after the FED minutes on Wednesday 5 April or on Friday of the same week after US payrolls news.

The weekly chart offers further confidence in the analysis of the daily chart as it confirms the same levels with just a 30-pip difference.
The monthly chart supports the short position on the pair as it shows the EURUSD on a downward channel. It also confirms resistance at 1.0940 as it recognizes the level as a 50% fibo level.

If the recent EUR strength was solely based on the failed Trump healthcare bill, then the EURUSD could try for the previous lows at 1.034. Nevertheless, there’s a lot of uncertainty in Europe with elections and Brexit as well as in the US with the ongoing political tensions so we’ll go for a modestly retained drop for the pair in our prediction at 1.0439, about 100 pips from the previous monthly lows.

CHARTS (daily, weekly, monthly)



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